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projects > development of ecosystem restoration and sea-level rise scenario simulations for the greater everglades using the ftloadds code > work plan

Project Work Plan

Department of Interior USGS GE PES
Fiscal Year 2012 Study Work Plan

Study Title: Development of Ecosystem Restoration and Sea-Level Rise Scenario Simulations for the Greater Everglades using the FTLOADDS code
Study Start Date: 03/1/2009 Study End Date: 9/30/2012
Project Chief: Dorothy Payne
USGS Florida Science Center
7500 SW 36th Street
Davie, FL 33314
954-377-5902
dfpayne@usgs.gov (now dsifuentes@usgs.gov)

Study Personnel:
Dorothy Payne, Lead PI
USGS Florida Water Science Center
dfpayne@usgs.gov (now dsifuentes@usgs.gov), 954-377-5902
Project Chief; coordinates and facilitates modeling and physical experiments

Eric D. Swain, Co-PI
USGS Florida Water Science Center
edswain@usgs.gov, 954-377-5925
Research Hydrologist; leads development of numerical hydrodynamic models; collaborates on data input development and physical experimentation

Melinda Lohmann
USGS Florida Water Science Center
mlohmann@usgs.gov, 954-377-5955.
Hydrologist (Eng); hydrology modeler and data development

Jeremy Decker
USGS Florida Water Science Center
jdecker@usgs.gov, 954-377-5965.
Hydrologist (Eng); development of three-dimensional sub-scale hydrodynamic model. Model testing

Michael Swain, Contractor
University of Miami
mswain@miami.edu, 305-284-3321
Leads physical experimentation into soil-heat storage parameters for hydrodynamic heat transport and determination of heat-budget parameters.

Associated / Linked Studies:

Project Location: USA, Florida, Broward-Monroe-Collier-Dade Counties, Everglades National Park, Big Cypress National Preserve, Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge.

A. PROJECT OVERVIEW

Objective(s):

One of the most apparent effects of climate-change is sea-level rise. Analyses of mean sea elevation and topography can produce maps of shoreline changes, but the climatic fluctuations and structural operations superimposed on the sea-level rise create dynamic and temporal effects. In order to study scenarios related to sea-level rise in south Florida, we propose the use of currently developed dynamic models of surface-water/ground-water flow to simulate varying levels of mean tidal-level increase with tidal and atmospheric fluctuations. The changes in inundation hydroperiod, salinity in urban and natural areas, and aquifer salinity intrusion can all be simulated in the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) model. Due to the model capability for simulating dynamic events for a multi-year timescale, the simulations will provide more information than map-based approaches.

FTLOADDS is a combination of two pre-existing codes, namely, the SWIFT2D two-dimensional hydrodynamic surface-water model code and the SEAWAT three-dimensional ground-water model code (Langevin and others, 2005). SWIFT2D computes vertically-integrated flow by solving the St. Venant equations in two dimensions. Additionally, SWIFT2D computes reactive constituent transport, density variations effects, drying and rewetting of periodically inundated areas, and hydraulic structures (Schaffranek 2004). SEAWAT is a combination of the commonly used ground-water model code MODFLOW and the solute-transport code MT3DMS (Guo and Langevin 2002). FTLOADDS therefore has the ability to simulate salinity transport in two dimensions for surface water and three dimensions for ground water. SWIFT2D and SEAWAT operate independently within FTLOADDS, with the exception of the leakage and salinity fluxes passed between the surface water and ground water. FTLOADDS has been enhanced to represent heat-transport in the surface water linked to evapotranspiration effects (Swain and Decker, 2008).

Applications of FTLOADDS to southern Florida coastal areas provide a comprehensive framework for predicting hydrologic changes (Swain and others, 2003). Applications in the area include: 1) The Tides and Inflows in the Mangrove Everglades (TIME) application in the Everglades National Park area (Wang and others, 2007); 2) The Ten-Thousand Islands (TTI) application between Everglades National Park and Naples; and 3) The Biscayne application from Biscayne Bay inland to the L-31N levee. The model-domain locations are shown in figure 1. The TIME application is used to evaluate CERP restoration scenarios by using output from the SFWMD regional 2x2 model and the TTI application yield information on manatee habitats. The TIME and Biscayne applications have been combined to produce the BIscayne/South-East Coastal Transport (BISECT) application. This tool has been used to develop a series of hindcast and futurecast simulations that can be used to examine landscape and topography changes, sea-level rise effects, precipitation changes, and ternperature changes.

The modeling application to the Ten Thousand Islands (TTI) area required a smaller-scale application to the Port of the Islands marina that can represent vertical stratification in salinity and temperature. The Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) was applied for this purpose and used boundary conditions from the TTI model to represent existing and restoration conditions.

The implementation of heat-transport in a wetland environment requires a number of heat-budget parameters that have not been well defined for the South Florida environment such as soil heat storage and albedo. Physical experiments are required to define these factors and improve the numerical model.

To achieve our goals, we are:

1: Refining model parameters and algorithms to better simulate water-levels, flows, salinity, and temperature in the hydrodynamic coastal area and underlying aquifer.

Based on ongoing testing of the FTLOADDS applications, advancements have been made in the following critical areas:

  1. The southern and western coastal boundaries are moved further offshore. The Gulf of Mexico boundaries are moved to approximately longitude 81° 24' west longitude and the Florida Bay boundary to latitude 25° 00' north latitude in order to delineate near-shore conditions.
  2. The discretization of the aquifer has been increased from 10 to 15 layers and newer aquifer characteristic data have been incorporated. The upper aquifer thickness has been reduced from 7 to 2.5 meters to improve the simulation of saltwater intrusion.
  3. The peat-layer representation for computing leakage will be given spatially-variable values based on recently developed peat maps.

2: Develop test simulation with the Sea Water Interface (SWI) package replacing the SEAWAT package to simulate ground-water flow and salinity.

SWI has a simpler representation of the interface as opposed to the full salinity transport capabilities of SEAWAT. The use of SWI represents a significant saving of computational effort and complexity, and the ability of SWI to represent the groundwater salinity interface is of great interest.

3: Develop simulations of sea-level rise and restoration scenarios.

The BISECT model using FTLOADDS has incorporating different scenarios of projected SLR and restoration options from CERP. These have been used to generate information on percent of time inundation and extent of salinity intrusion. Regional climate parameters downscaled from global models are used to define rainfall for future-scenario simulations. Comparisons of these scenarios yields information for coastal natural and urban areas.

4: Physical experimentation to delineate soil heat parameters for wetland and offshore heat-transport.

Physical experiments involve several circular tanks filled with soil and water to determine heat storage in the underlying soil and effects of bottom reflectance on the total heat budget. Thermocouples measure the temperature at various points in the soil and water, and instruments also measure solar radiation and humidity. The information is used to determine soil heat storage and albedo. Additional testing looks at different bottom types and their effect on the total heat budget.

Highlights and Key Findings:

Relevance:

The numerical modeling tools that go into FTLOADDS have been under development in South Florida for over a decade. The original application of the coupled SWIFT2D/SEAWAT code was the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS) model of the Florida Bay coastal area (Swain and others, 2004). The ongoing development of the code and applications has led to the TIME, TTI, Biscayne, and BISECT models. The implementation of CERP restoration alternatives requires the modeling of complex hydrologic interactions. FTLOADDS requires continual advancement in computation and parameterization. The ability to represent hydrodynamics is essential when representing coastal salinity mixing, and the groundwater/surface-water interactions must be accounted for simultaneously. The suite of model parameters is extensive, and the combined computational abilities of FTLOADDS is more complex than any other modeling effort in South Florida.

The hydrological output can link to other models developed for CERP, providing decision-support tool for resource managers throughout the Greater Everglades (Everglades National Park, Ten Thousand Islands National Wildlife Refuge, Big Cypress National Preserve).

Users of Data and other Products:

Delivered Products:

Publications

Michael Swain, Matthew Swain, Melinda Lohmann, and Eric Swain (2012). "Experimental Determination of Soil Heat Storage for the Simulation of Heat Transport in a Coastal Wetland". Accepted for publication in the Journal of Hydrology.

Bradley M. Stith, James p. Reid, Catherine A. Langtimm, Eric D. Swain, Terry J. Doyle, Daniel H. Slone, Jeremy D. Decker, and Lars E. Soderqvist (2011). "Temperature Inverted Haloclines Provide Winter Warm-Water Refugia for Manatees in Southwest Florida". Estuaries and Coasts 34(1) pp. 106-119.

Green, T.W., Slone, D.H., Swain, E.D., and others, 2010, Spatial and stage-structured population model of the American crocodile for comparison of comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) alternatives: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010--1284, 57 p.

Swain, Eric, and Decker, Jeremy, 2010. Measurement-derived Heat-budget Approaches for Simulating Coastal Wetland Temperature with a Hydrodynamic Model: Wetlands 30(3) pp. 635-648

Submitted for publication

Jeremy Decker, Eric Swain, Brad Stith, and Catherine Langtimm (2012). "Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flow and Transport Modeling to Assess Factors Affecting Thermal Properties of a Passive Thermal Refuge". Submitted to Estuaries and Coasts.

Swain, Eric D., Decker, Jeremy D., and Hughes, Joseph D. (2012). "Utilizing Field Measurements to Determine the Significance of and Need for Hydrodynamic Formulations in Coastal Hydrology". Submitted to Journal of Hydraulics.

Abstracts

Eric Swain, Catherine Langtimm, Tom Smith, Dennis Krohn, Don DeAngelis, Brad Stith, Jeremy Decker, and Melinda Lohmann, 2010. Predicting Coastal Landscape Changes by Modeling Long-Timescale Impacts of Hydrodynamic Fluctuations on Salinity and Hydroperiods: Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER) 2010 Conference, July 12-16, 2010.

Michael Swain, Matthew Swain, Melinda Lohmann, and Eric Swain, 2010. Experimental Determination of Soil Heat Storage Depth for the Simulation of Heat Transport in a Coastal Wetland: Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER) 2010 Conference, July 12-16, 2010.

Timothy W. Green, Daniel H. Slone, Eric D. Swain, Michael S. Cherkiss, Frank J. Mazzotti , and Kenneth G. Rice, 2010: Using a Spatially Explicit Crocodile Population Model to Predict Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Everglades Restoration Alternatives: Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER) 2010 Conference, July 12-16, 2010.

Gordon H. Anderson, Kiren Bahm, Robert Fennema, Eric Swain, Karen M. Balentine and Thomas J. Smith III, 2010. A paired surface-water/groundwater monitoring network in the western coastal mangrove Everglades provides water level and salinity data for analysis and model validation: Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER) 2010 Conference, July 12-16, 2010.

Kiren Bahm, Eric Swain, Robert Fennema, and Kevin Kotun, 2010. Everglades National Park and Sea-Level Rise: Using the TIME Model to Predict Salinity and Hydroperiods: Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER) 2010 Conference, July 12-16, 2010.

Melinda Lohmann and Eric Swain, 2010. Potential Impacts of Localized Features Upon Sea-Level Rise Induced Salt-water Intrusion in the Hydrodynamic Coastal Regions of South Florida: Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER) 2010 Conference, July 12-16, 2010.

Jeremy Decker and Eric Swain, 2010. Hydrodynamic Modeling to Assess Factors Affecting Thermal Properties of a Passive Thermal Refuge in Southwest Florida: Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration (GEER) 2010 Conference, July 12-16, 2010.

Eric Swain, Melinda Lohmann, Catherine Langtimm, Jeremy Decker, Brad Stith, and Dennis Krohn, 2010. Advances and Applications of Hydrodynamic Transport Modeling Coupled to Underlying Ground-Water Flow in Southern Florida, USA: Third USGS Modeling Conference, June 7-11, 2010.

Eric Swain, Melinda Lohmann, and Jeremy Decker, 2010. Use of a Linked Hydrodynamic Surface-water/Groundwater Model to Predict Hydrologic Conditions for Managing Effects of Climate Change and Ecosystem Restoration Efforts in Southern Florida USA: Water & Environment 2010, CIWEM's Annual Conference, London UK April 28-29, 2010.

Eric Swain, Catherine Langtimm, Tom Smith, Dennis Krohn, Don DeAngelis, Brad Stith, Jeremy Decker, and Melinda Lohmann, 2010. Development of hydrodynamic models for evaluating climate change and ecosystem landscape effects in Southern Florida, USA: USGS Climate Change Science: Understanding the Past, Informing Decisions for the Future, Denver CO March 9-11, 2010.

Swain, E., Langtimm, C.A., Lohmann, M., Smith, T.J., Krohn, M.D., and DeAngelis, D.L., 2011, Estimation and prediction of coastal landscape changes utilizing a hydrodynamic simulator and aerial photogrammetry, Presentation at National Conference on Ecosystem Restoration, Baltimore MD, August 1-5, 2011.

Lohmann, M., and Swain, E., 2011, Evaluating the potential impacts of sea-level rise and the comprehensive Everglades restoration plan (CERP) on South Florida using the Biscayne and Southern Everglades Coastal Transport (BISECT) Model: National Conference on Ecosystem Restoration, Baltimore MD, August 1-5, 2011.

Eric Swain, Melinda Lohmann, Dennis Krohn, Thomas Smith, Catherine Langtimm, Don DeAngelis, Brad Stith, Jiang Jiang, and Ann Foster, 2012. Investigating Hydrologic Scenarios with Climate Change and Ecosystem Process Feedback Using Hindcast and Futurecast Modeling: The 9th INTECOL International Wetlands Conference, June 3-8, 2012, Orlando, Florida.

Posters

Langtimm, C.A., DeAngelis, D.L., Krohn, M.D., Smith, T.J., III, Stith, B.M., and Swain, E.D., Past and future impacts of sea level rise on coastal habitats and species in the greater Everglades, Poster Presented at Sea Level Rise 2010 Conference, March 1-3 2010, Corpus Christi, TX.

Langtimm, C.A., DeAngelis, D.L., Krohn, M.D., Smith, T.J., III, Stith, B.M., and Swain, E.D., Past and future impacts of sea level rise on coastal habitats and species in the greater Everglades, Poster Presented at USGS Climate Change Conference, March 9-11 2010, Denver, CO.

Swain, E., Langtimm, C., Smith, T., Krohn, M.D., DeAngelis, D., Stith, B., Decker, J., and Lohmann, M., Development of hydrodynamic models for evaluating climate change and ecosystem landscape effects in southern Florida, USA, Poster Presented at USGS Climate Change Conference, March 9-11 2010, Denver, CO.

Langtimm, C.A., DeAngelis, D.L., Krohn, M.D., Smith, T.J. III, Stith, B.M., and Swain, E.D., Past and future impacts of sea level rise on coastal habitats and species in the greater Everglades, Poster presented at 3rd USGS Modeling Conference, Denver, Colorado, June 7-11, 2010.

Planned Products:

BISECT and TTI model application:

Workshops

Data and metadata

Presentations at professional meetings

Peer reviewed papers:

FY12 TASK 1 WORK PLAN

Title of Task 1: Numerical Hydrology Modeling
Task Leader: Eric D. Swain
Phone: 954-377-5925
e-mail: edswain@usgs.gov
Task Personnel:
Eric Swain -- Lead hydrologic modeler
Melinda Lohmann -- Hydrologic modeler
External Collaborators and Partners:
Omar Ibne Abdul Aziz, School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Modeling assistance in incorporating more advanced canal and control structure representations in the FTLOADDS simulations.

Joseph V. Letter Jr., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Research Hydraulic Engineer, Vicksburg MS. Modifying the 3-D POI model to examine proposed changes to support the manatee refugia.

Task Objectives:

Develop and refine the coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of the TIME area to best represent critical areas in Everglades National Park and the eastern coastal zone. This involves the representation of coastal salinities and water levels in both the surface water and groundwater. The representation of canals and control structures with a routing scheme will be tested and evaluated.

Scenarios that represent CERP restoration and Climate-Change scenarios will be finalized with all revised aquifer parameters, canal and control structure representations, initial and boundary conditions, and boundary locations.

The three-dimensional Port of the Island model will be modified to represent proposed changes to help the manatee habitat suitability after the Picayune Strand Restoration Project is implemented.

Methods:

The locations of primary interest will be indentified with input from ENP, SFWMD, and ACOE. Comparisons will be made with field measured values of flow, water-level, and salinity for both surface water and groundwater. Initial conditions for ground-water salinity will be modified to represent measured values better at the locations of primary interest. The effects of spatial variability of parameters of interest, such as peat-layer thickness, will be examined.

The compatibility of parameters between BISECT and the TIME and Biscayne models will be verified as the final versions of these models. The incorporation of canals and control structures will be tested by incorporating features of the Surface Water Routing (SWR) package developed for MODFLOW.

ACOE personnel will be familiarized with the 3-D POI model so several changes which have been proposed to maintain the manatee refugia can be simulated. Boundaries from the larger TTI model for the restoration scheme are used.

Progress and Accomplishments during previous fiscal year:

Work to be undertaken during the current fiscal year:

Specific Task Product(s) to be produced in future:

FY12 TASK 2 WORK PLAN

Title of Task 2: Physical Experimentation to Support Heat-Transport Modeling
Task Leader: Dorothy Payne
Phone: 954-377-5902
e-mail: dfpayne@usgs.gov (now dsifuentes@usgs.gov)
Task Personnel:
Dorothy Payne -- Lead Research Supervisor
Melinda Lohmann -- Hydrologic modeler
External Collaborators and Partners:
Michael Swain, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables FL. Constructing and conducting physical experiments to determine shallow wetland and offshore heat budget parameters for use in numerical models.

Task Objectives:

The physical experiments are designed to determine soil heat storage and other components of the heat budget and observe the effects of variations in environmental factors, plant density, and bottom type. The derived parameters assist the accurate computation of heat-transport and temperature, as well as evapotranspiration in the numerical models.

Methods:

The experimental apparatus are several circular tanks filled with soil and water to determine heat storage in the underlying soil and effects of bottom reflectance on the total heat budget. Synthetic vegetation is used that reproduces the density and size of plants observed in the field. Thermocouples measure the temperature at various points in the soil and water, and instruments also measure solar radiation and humidity. The information is used to determine soil heat storage and albedo. Additional testing looks at different bottom types and their effect on the total heat budget.

Collecting over a two-year period provides data that is used in a one-dimensional heat-transfer model to derive the heat storage in the soil. An effective depth of soil that is in thermal connection to the surface water can be computed with heat budget parameters such as albedo.

Progress and Accomplishments during previous fiscal year:

Work to be undertaken during the current fiscal year:

Specific Task Product(s) to be produced in future: