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Project Work Plan

U.S. Geological Survey, Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)

Fiscal Year 2005 Study Work Plan

Study Title: SICS and TIME model linkages and development in support of Everglades Restoration (formerly two projects; SICS/TIME surface water and SICS/TIME ground water)
Study Start Date: 10/00 Study End Date: 9/06
Web Sites: time.er.usgs.gov
sofia.usgs.gov/projects/time/
sofia.usgs.gov/projects/sheet_flow/
www.gulfbase.org/project/view.php?pid=siacssmd
fl.water.usgs.gov/cesi/sed_sicsmodeldevelopment_proj.htm
sofia.usgs.gov/proposals/2001/time01.html
www.gulfbase.org/project/view.php?pid=taiitmetmd

Location: Southern Everglades and Florida Bay; Miami-Dade County; Monroe County, Everglades National Park

Funding Source: USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)

Other Complementary Funding Source: Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP)

Principal Investigators: Dr. Eric Swain, Dr. Christian Langevin

Study Personnel: Dr. John Wang (Rosenstiel School of Marine Science), Melinda Wolfert, Dawn James. Dr. Don DeAngelis (Biological Resources Division) and Dr. Jon Cline (Case Western University) funded by associated Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES) project

Supporting Organizations: Everglades National Park; Army Corps of Engineers; South Florida Water Management District

Associated / Linked Studies

Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS); Canal and Wetland Flow/Transport Interaction, Effect of Wind on Surface Water Flows; Everglades ET measurement and modeling, Flow Velocity and Water Level Transects; Freshwater Flows into Northeastern Florida Bay; Geophysical Studies of the Southwest Florida Coast; Ground Water Flow and Transport for the SICS and TIME Models; Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions and Relation to Water Quality in the Everglades; High Accuracy Elevation Data Collection; High-Resolution Bathymetry of Florida Bay; Southwest Florida Coastal and Wetland Systems Monitoring; Vegetative Resistance to Flow in the Everglades; Everglades Coastal Gradients Study; Florida Bay, Florida Keys Feasibility Study.

Overview & Objectives:

This investigation makes use of the SWIFT2D two-dimensional surface-water model and the SEAWAT three-dimensional ground-water model to represent flow and transport in the southern Everglades. This successful production of an operation model can be primarily attributed to this projects allocation of the necessary resources and time. Similar efforts outside the USGS have typically been terminated before successful completion. The SICS model, constructed first, represents the southeast coastal region interface with Florida Bay. SWIFT2D and SEAWAT are coupled, allowing leakage to be represented along with salinity transfer. In order to represent regional restoration scenarios, the SICS model has been linked via boundary water levels to the regional South Florida Water Management Model. This linkage allows the simulation of restoration scenarios, defined by the SFWMM, in the SICS area. The same modeling system is in the process of being expanded to the west and north to include the TIME domain. This encompasses more of the structural controls in the area and allows for the representation of Shark Slough flows. The SICS model output has been coupled to components of the ATLSS ecologic modeling suite, in order to supply the necessary hydrologic information for determination of fish population dynamics.

Specific Relevance to Major Unanswered Questions and Information Needs Identified:

This coupled numerical model will continue to be a crucial decision support tool. The quantity, timing, and distribution of clean fresh water needed to restore the South Florida ecosystem is a primary concern, and can only be addressed by numerical models which represent the controlling factors and can represent proposed CERP restoration scenarios. These scenarios will assist in planning actions to restore, protect, and maintain natural resources on DOI lands in South Florida, allowing a prediction of the results of the planned actions. The coupling of the SICS output to the ATLSS ecologic models allows the testing of the action scenarios on the recovery of South Florida's threatened and endangered species . All these capabilities makes the SICS/TIME effort essential to Ecosystem Restoration.

Status:

The SICS model has been documented in several publications which describe the surface-water representation, a user's manual for the surface-water model, the coupling to the ground water, and the linkage to the SFWMM. The coupled SICS model has a seven-year simulation period producing good representations of field data. Several base scenarios created by the SFWMM have been implemented in the SICS model, demonstrating the utility of the linkage. The TIME model is currently being tested in coupled configuration. The SICS scenarios are used in ATLSS simulations, which are described in a conference paper.

Recent Products:

The documentation of the SICS surface-water model has been published as WRIR 03-4287 "Two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulation of surface-water flow and transport to Florida Bay through the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS)" and the coupling to the ground-water model as OFR 04-1097 "Simulation of integrated surface-water/ground-water flow and solute transport for a coastal wetland and adjacent marine estuary".

TWRI Book 6, Chapter 1, Section B "A model for simulation of surface-water integrated flow and transport in two dimensions: SWIFT2D user's manual" is the user's manual for the SWIFT2D code and OFR 2004-1195 "Assigning boundary conditions to the Southern Inland and Coastal Systems (SICS) model using results from the South Florida Water Management Model (SFWMM)" describes the linkage of SICS to the SFWMM.

The SICS/ATLSS coupling has been described in a conference paper at the International Environmental Modeling and Software Society (IEMSS) 2004 conference.

Planned Products:

A presentation and abstract on the SFWMM linkage will be given at the November 2004 GSA conference.

The SICS/ATLSS coupling will be discussed in an article in the IEMSS Journal.

The NCER conference in December 2004 will feature several extended abstracts and a fact sheet about SICS, TIME and ATLSS.

A user's manual for the modified wetland application of the SWIFT2D code should be published by the end of the calendar year.

A document describing the TIME model development and code modifications is planned for completion in FY 2006.

Further SICS and TIME restoration scenarios will be posted on the CERP web site along with technical descriptions.

WORK PLAN

Title of Task 1: Use of inverse-modeling techniques in SICS for scenario optimization
Task Funding: USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)
Task Leaders: Eric Swain, Christian Langevin
Phone: (305)717-5825
FAX: (305)717-5801
Task Status: proposed
Task priority: high
Time Frame for Task 1: FY05; FY06
Task Personnel: Melinda Wolfert, Dawn James

Task Summary and Objectives: The primary motivation in the SICS/TIME modeling effort is to lend insight into Restoration efforts. By utilizing inverse modeling techniques, the Restoration performance measures, which define target salinities and water-levels for ecologic purposes, can be used as objective functions and the boundary conditions of the model are optimized to satisfy the performance measures. These desired boundary conditions then can be related to the regional water-delivery scheme. This technique requires multiple model executions to develop stochastic representations of the effects of boundary variations. The inverse model must be constructed to act as a control shell for the SICS model, with the hydrologic output from the SICS model used by the inverse model shell for the optimization procedure.

The objective of this task is to develop ecosystem restoration recommendations to achieve performance measure criterion through the application of inverse-modeling techniques to the SICS model. This application will allow the optimization of water-delivery schemes for the achievement of performance measures.

Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures: The design of the inverse modeling scheme will be based on a survey of existing inverse modeling and linear programming techniques. The stochastic quantification of the input-to-output relationship for a complex unsteady simulation has been considered more difficult than conventional applications to steady-state models. The initial application of the technique to optimize a performance measure value will show the techniques usefulness in the quality aspect of the science plan "getting the water right".

Specific Task Products:

1) Construction of prototype inverse-SICS model, 8/1/05

2) Implementation of preliminary CERP performance measure test, 9/30/05

Title of Task 2: Linkage of SICS/TIME scenarios to ATLSS ecologic modeling
Task Funding:
USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)
Task Leaders: Eric Swain
Phone: (305)717-5825
FAX: (305)717-5801
Task Status: ongoing
Task priority high
Time Frame for Task 2: FY05
Task Personnel: Don DeAngelis (Biological Resources Division) and Jon Cline (Case Western University) funded by associated Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES) project

Task Summary and Objectives: The ATLSS ecologic modeling suite includes the model ALFISHES, which utilizes hydrologic data (water levels and salinity) to predict fish population dynamics. This is related to wading bird behavior and affects the entire ecology of the southern Everglades. The output from the SICS model is used to supply the necessary hydrologic data for the field-calibrated and base-case scenario runs. The ALFISHES model will be used to compare the effects of various restoration scenarios on fish population. The most significant comparisons involve the restoration scenarios to be generated by SICS in FY2005. These SICS runs vary from the base case due to restoration alternative operations, so applying them to the ALFISHES simulation allows for a comparison of the various ecologic ramifications of the restoration changes.

Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures:

The interface between SICS and the ATLSS model is functional with the interpolation of depth and salinity values, so the initial work in FY2005 is to generate the necessary SICS output for the restoration scenarios and the conversion of these scenario output to ATLSS input. The conversion primarily involves interpolation between the 305 meter grid of the SICS model and the 500 meter ATLSS grid.

Specific Task Products:

1) Article in the International Environmental Modeling Systems Journal on the SICS/ATLSS coupling, 10/31/04

2) Implementation of ATLSS ALFISHES simulation for restoration scenarios, 7/1/05

Title of Task 3: Linkage of SICS to Natural Systems Model
Task Funding:
USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)
Task Leaders: Eric Swain
Phone: (305)717-5825
FAX: (305)717-5801
Task Status: ongoing
Task priority: high
Time Frame for Task 3: FY05
Task Personnel: Melinda Wolfert, Dawn James

Task Summary and Objectives:

In order to further utilize the connection developed between the SICS model and the SFWMM, an equivalent connection is to be developed between SICS and the Natural Systems Model (NSM). The NSM simulates the hydrologic response of an Everglades watershed in its pre-drainage condition. Recent climatic data is used to simulate the pre-drainage hydrologic response to current conditions. This can be visualized as an approximation of what the system may be like in modern time if no anthropomorphic changes had occurred. Vegetation, topography, and surface-water features used by the NSM are based on pre-drainage conditions. The NSM can generate boundaries for the SICS model which can be modified to have man-made features removed from it as well. This simulation then can supply the hydrology data for an ALFISHES simulation of natural conditions as described in Task 2. This can provide good target information for Restoration.

Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures:

The output format from the NSM is similar to the SFWMM, so the same interface can be modified to function in this task. One important change is the removal of all anthropomorphic features in the SICS model. This includes the L-31W canal system and potential topographic and vegetative characteristic changes.

Specific Task Products

NSM scenarios run for use in ATLSS model, 7/1/05

Title of Task 4: Evaluation of TIME related algorithm changes in SICS simulation
Task Funding: USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES), Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan funding complementary project
Task Leaders: Eric Swain
Phone: (305)717-5825
FAX: (305)717-5801
Task Status: ongoing
Task priority: high
Time Frame for Task 4: FY05; FY06
Task Personnel: John Wang (Rosenstiel School of Marine Science)

Task Summary and Objectives:

In order to apply the existing coupled model code to the TIME simulation area, and in the course of normal code development, significant changes in code algorithms have been made since the construction of the SICS model. This involves changes in ET, hydraulic barriers, wetting and drying, and other algorithms. In order to properly evaluate the implications of these changes, a comparison back to the original SICS simulation must be made. In order to achieve this, the portion of the TIME model grid which corresponds to the SICS are will be isolated with comparable boundaries to the original SICS simulation. The isolation process involves the reconstruction of the model grid and a redevelopment of the boundaries. This model will then be compared to the original SICS simulation and any differences evaluated. The objective is to delineate the effects of the code modifications and quantify them. This process will help increase confidence in the applications of both models to Restoration efforts.

Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures:

As described previously, the portion of the TIME model grid corresponding to the SICS area will be partitioned. The boundaries will be created to correspond to those in the original SICS model. The grid size of TIME is different than SICS, so this will complicate the comparison of the codes. A sensitivity test of the model to grid-spacing will be included in the analysis. The comparison criteria will include all the produced information; water level, salinity, and flow velocities. Basic statistics will be used to compare the similarity and evaluate the different methods.

Specific Task Products

The report describing the development of the TIME model, including the results of this analysis, in first draft form, 9/30/05



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