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projects > land of flowers on a latitude of deserts: aiding conservation & management of florida's biodiversity using predictions from downscaled aogcm climate scenarios combined with ecological modeling

Land of Flowers on a Latitude of Deserts: Aiding Conservation & Management of Florida's Biodiversity Using Predictions from Downscaled AOGCM Climate Scenarios Combined with Ecological Modeling

squashed globe image showing Florida lying at the same latitudes as the Sahara Desert
Project Investigators: Thomas J. Smith III, Eric Chassignet, Donald L. DeAngelis, Ann M. Foster, Wiley M. Kitchens, Vasu Misra, H. Franklin Percival, Nathaniel Plant, Daniel Slone, Lydia Stefanova, David M. Sumner, Eric Swain, Susan Walls, Christa Zweig

Project Personnel: Mike Allen, Hal Davis, Timothy W. Green, Paul R. Nelson, Brad Stith, Ann B. Tihansky, Ginger Tiling-Range, Rachel J. Pawlitz

Project Start Date: 2009 End Date: 2011

Recent Funding: (FY10) USGS NCCWSC, (FY09) USGS NCCWSC


Summary

We are developing regionally down-scaled climate model predictions from three coupled Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models. The climate predictions will then be used as inputs to a suite of previously developed ecological and hydrological models to assess species, communities and habitats for the Suwannee River / Big Bend area in the north, and the Greater Everglades in the south.

La Florida (Land of Flowers) straddles latitudes forming the northern hemisphere's desert belt. Orlando is one-degree latitude south of Cairo, Egypt. Florida is unique because it is a peninsula surrounded by warm water. Florida also has a high biodiversity: 4,000+ flowering plants, including >700 trees; 90 mammals; 52 amphibians; 88 reptiles; 500 birds; 250+ freshwater fish, many of which are endangered. How will Florida's biodiversity respond to a changing climate? Which species and habitats will increase or decrease? What role does land use-land cover change play? Answers to these questions are of critical concern to resource managers. To address these questions we are developing regionally down-scaled climate model predictions from three coupled Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models for Florida and the southeastern US. The climate predictions will then be used as inputs to a suite of previously developed ecological and hydrological models to assess species, communities and habitats for two study regions in Florida that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The study regions are the Suwannee River / Big Bend area in the north, which is a relatively undisturbed, pristine temperate system. In the south, we are working in the Greater Everglades which is a highly impacted tropical system.

Objectives include:

  • Climate model downscaling
  • Using down-scaled climate variables in hydrological models
  • Ecological studies and modeling in the Greater Everglades area
  • Ecological studies and modeling in the Suwannee River / Big Bend area
  • Climate envelope models for native and exotic plants
  • Database management, data dissemination, application and outreach

Data

Data Sets from Publications and Other Websites

Metadata

Publications

Book/Chapter from Book

Journal Articles

Related Links

 


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Script last updated: 02 December 2016 @ 02:34 PM by THF. Record creator: BJM. Record last updated by: KP.