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publications > report > development of additional multivariate linear regression salinity models for Florida Bay and the southwest Gulf Coast, Everglades National Park

Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative Final Task Report

Development of Additional Multivariate Linear Regression Salinity Models for Florida Bay and the Southwest Gulf Coast, Everglades National Park

A portion of this document is below; please see the PDF Version for the entire document.

Cooperative Agreement Number CA H5284-05-0006
Between
The United States Department of the Interior National Park Service
Everglades National Park
And
Cetacean Logic Foundation, Inc.

FINAL TASK REPORT
Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative

Frank E. Marshall, III
Principal Investigator

DeWitt Smith
Project Coordinator

January 5, 2008
Revised August 5, 2008
Revised January 19, 2009 (Blackwater Sound model added)

Table of Contents

I. Introduction
II. Data for Model Development
III. Model Development
IV. Error Statistics for Models - Goodness-of-Fit Measures
V. Discussion
VI. Conclusions and Recommendations
VII. References

A portion of this document is below; please see the PDF Version for the entire document.

Appendix A. Residual Plots

I. Introduction

Map of the Everglades and Florida Bay Study Area Showing Monitoring Stations

Figure 1. Map of all ENP Marine Monitoring Stations showing stations where MLR salinity models were prepared during this study (red arrows). At all other locations, models were previously prepared as part of other studies [larger image]

A. General

This report describes the activities that were completed for a task in the on-going Critical Ecosystem Studies Initiative (CESI) project that was originally initiated by Cetacean Logic Foundation, Inc. (CLF) for Everglades National Park (ENP) in 2002. The goal of this CLF research is the characterization and simulation of the salinity regime in Florida Bay and the estuaries along southwest coast of the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf) within the Park, which receive freshwater drainage from the Everglades. It is intended that this research yield information regarding the link between the downstream salinity in the estuaries of ENP and the upstream freshwater hydrology of the Everglades.

The subject of the task and this report is the development of multivariate linear regression (MLR) salinity models for some the ENP Marine Monitoring Network (MMN) stations. MLR salinity models were previously developed for about half of the 33 stations in the MMN (Marshall, 2005a; 2005b). The development of models for the remaining MMN stations is described herein.

B. Task Objectives and Evaluation Methods

The objective of this task is presented below as it appears in the modified contract for this CESI project approved by ENP:

"The year one CESI project focused primarily on the development of models for Joe Bay, Little Madeira Bay, Terrapin Bay, Garfield Bight, North River, and Whipray Basin. The IOP exercise updated some of those models and added a new model for Long Sound, Duck Key, and Butternut Key. The second year CESI project added new MLR salinity models for Taylor River, Highway Creek, Little Blackwater Sound, and Bob Allen Key. Work for the Southern Estuaries Sub-team developed new models for Whitewater Bay East, Clearwater Pass, Shark River, and Gunboat Island. New MLR salinity models will be developed using the longest period of data available at the remaining physical monitoring stations in the ENP MMN. Most of these stations are within the influence of Shark River Slough or relatively more distant from the Everglades in the open water areas of Florida Bay. The development of new models assumes that the data are adequate and that there is a statistical relationship between salinity at a particular locations and the suite of independent variables that have been assembled for model development. The MMN stations for new models are Broad River, Buoy Key, Broad River Lower, Cane Patch, Harney River, Johnson Key, Lane River, Lostmans River, Little Rabbit Key, Murray Key, Peterson Key, Tarpon Bay East, and Willy Willy.
The deliverable is a task report describing model development activities and new MLR salinity models."

In addition to the stations above, MLR salinity models were also developed for Cannon Bay and Watson Place, in the extreme northwest area of ENP on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico.

Station Name	MMN ID	Location	Beginning 0f Record
Table 1. Summary of information about the monitoring stations and salinity data used in model development and verification for additional Florida Bay and southwest Gulf coast MLR salinity models. All data were collected by ENP.
Blackwater Sound	BS	Northeastern Florida Bay	11/09/1991
Broad River	BR	Shark River Slough Estuary	01/18/1990
Broad River Lower	BD	Shark River Slough Estuary	04/12/1996
Buoy Key	BK	Central Florida Bay	04/27/1988
Cannon Bay	CA	Upper West Coast	09/20/2000
Cane Patch	CN	Shark River Slough Estuary	01/19/1990
Harney River	HR	Shark River Slough Estuary	03/13/1996
Johnson Key	JK	Western Florida Bay	01/01/1988
Lane River	LN	Whitewater Bay	04/18/1996
Lostmans River	LO	Upper West Coast	10/16/1997
Little Rabbit Key	LR	Western Florida Bay	04/27/1988
Murray Key	MK	Western Florida Bay	04/27/1988
Peterson Key	PK	Western Florida Bay	04/27/1988
Tarpon Bay East	TE	Shark River Slough Estuary	04/04/1996
Watson Place	WP	Upper West Coast	09/20/2000
Willy Willy	WW	Upper West Coast	08/25/1997

Table 2. Data summary for the independent variable database used in model development and verification for Florida Bay MLR salinity models.

Variable Name Variable Type Units Data Source Location Beginning Date of Data Record

Little Madeira Bay Salinity psu ENP North Central Florida Bay, near-shore embayment 04/28/1988

Terrapin Bay Salinity psu ENP North Central Florida Bay, near-shore embayment 09/12/1991

CP Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Craighead Pond 10/01/78

E146 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Taylor Slough 03/24/94

EVER4 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP So. Of FL City 09/20/85

EVER6 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP So. Of FL City 12/24/91

EVER7 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP So. Of FL City 12/24/91

G3273 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP East of S.R. Slough 03/14/84

NP206 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP East of S.R. Slough 10/01/74

NP46 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Rocky Glades 01/15/66

NP62 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP East of S.R. Slough 01/04/64

P33 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Shark River Slough 02/15/53

P35 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Shark River Slough 02/15/63

P37 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Taylor Slough 01/15/53

P38 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Shark River Slough 01/10/52

R127 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 ENP Taylor Slough 04/11/84

PA8 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 SFWMD Big Cypress Preserve 10/12/95

PA9 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 SFWMD Big Cypress Preserve 10/06/95

PA10 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 SFWMD Big Cypress Preserve 10/05/95

PA11 Stage Ft, NGVD 29 SFWMD Big Cypress Preserve 09/11/95

UWNDKW E-W Wind N/A NWS Key West 01/07/57

VWNDKW N-S Wind N/A NWS Key West 01/07/57

UWNDMIA E-W Wind N/A NWS Miami 01/07/57

VWNDMIA N-S Wind N/A NWS Miami 01/07/57

KWWATLEV Sea Surface Elevation Ft, MSL NOS Key West 01/19/13

Table 3. Periods used for calibration and verification for MLR salinity model development.

Station Name Calibration Period Verification Period

Blackwater Sound 07/16/1994 - 12/31/2000 01/01/2001 - 12/31/2001

Buoy Key 09/07/1997 - 12/31/2000 01/01/2001 - 10/31/2002

Broad River 01/12/1996 - 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2000

Broad River Lower 05/09/1996 - 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2000

Cane Patch 05/09/1996 - 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2000

Cannon Bay 10/16/1997 - 02/30/2002 01/01/2003 - 03/13/2003

Harney River 06/14/1996 - 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2000

Johnson Key 08/19/1994 - 12/31/2000 01/01/2001 - 10/31/2002

Lane River 05/09/1996 - 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2000

Little Rabbit Key 09/10/1997 - 12/31/2000 01/01/2001 - 10/31/2002

Lostmans River 10/16/1997 - 12/31/2000 01/01/2001 - 10/31/2002

Murray Key 10/21/1997 - 12/31/2000 01/01/2001 - 10/31/2002

Peterson Key 07/16/1994 - 12/31/2000 01/01/2001 - 10/31/2002

Tarpon East 05/09/1996 - 12/31/1999 01/01/2000 - 12/31/2000

Watson Place 09/20/2000 - 12/31/2002 01/01/2003 - 03/13/2003

Willy Willy 08/25/1997 - 12/31/2001 01/01/2002 - 03/01/2003

Table 4. Comparison of Model Error Statistics for MLR Salinity Models.

Station Name N Mean error Mse Root mse Mean abs error Max abs error Rel mean error Rel mse Rel mean abs error NSE

Blackwater Sound 2448 0.002 10.34 3.22 2.39 11.86 0.001 0.19 0.09 0.66

Broad River 1506 -0.04 5.11 2.26 1.26 13.91 -0.02 0.3 0.57 0.54

Broad Lower 1192 -0.05 15.48 3.94 3.04 16.65 0 0.14 0.26 0.75

Cane Patch 1602 -0.02 1.26 1.12 0.53 8.98 -0.02 0.41 0.67 0.42

Cannon Bay 794 0.01 37.5 6.12 4.75 22.87 0.01 0.05 0.26 0.9

Harney River 1600 -0.02 14.6 3.82 2.92 14.09 0 0.16 0.35 0.72

Johnson Key 1624 0.05 7.2 2.68 2.21 9.72 0.01 0.29 0.07 0.55

Lane River 1604 -0.14 8.58 2.93 2.13 12.55 -0.02 0.12 0.32 0.79

Little Rabbit 1121 0.09 5.84 2.41 1.92 8.58 0.01 0.37 0.05 0.45

Lostmans River 746 -0.03 21.33 4.62 3.72 12.8 -0.01 0.13 0.3 0.76

Murray Key 867 0.02 8.4 2.9 2.34 11.97 0.01 0.32 0.07 0.51

Peterson Key 1698 -0.01 3.9 1.98 1.58 5.79 -0.01 0.27 0.05 0.57

Tarpon East 1601 -0.05 2.73 1.65 1 9.04 -0.02 0.27 0.48 0.58

Watson Place 716 -0.01 23.58 4.85 3.67 20.65 -0.01 0.07 0.18 0.86

Willy Willy 620 -0.31 6.62 2.57 1.57 10.86 -0.12 0.17 0.61 0.72

Figure 2. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Buoy Key. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 3. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Murray Key. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 4. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Johnson Key. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 5. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Little Rabbit Key. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 6. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Peterson Key. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 7. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Lane River. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 8. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Cane Patch. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 9. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Tarpon Bay East. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 10. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Harney River. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 11. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Broad River. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 12. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Broad River Lower. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 13. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Willy Willy. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 14. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Lostmans River. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 15. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Cannon Bay. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 16. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Watson Place. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

Figure 17. Comparison of predicted salinity compared to observed salinity for Blackwater Sound. See Table 3 for calibration and verification periods. [larger image]

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