Landscape-Scale Science Needed to Support Multiple CERP Projects

Overview

[larger image]

An important goal of this effort is to coordinate the collection of field data with model calibration and verification. In addition, tools need to be developed that will allow managers to more readily interpret model output. The scope, complexity--and potential ramifications—of these overarching models and programs requires effective interagency participation to ensure the best possible mix of resources are available and the work and funding are coordinated and cost-effective.

SUMMARY OF HIGH PRIORITY LANDSCAPE-LEVEL SCIENCE NEEDS

[view table in full]

Landscape–Scale Modeling

Background
An overview of the landscape-scale models and how they are being used to direct individual projects is provided in the introduction to this chapter (see page 17).

What is Needed
Higher resolution hydrologic models. The ability to predict how fish and wildlife will respond to a given restoration project strongly relies on the ability to accurately simulate fine-scale hydrologic changes across the landscape. The development of higher resolution hydrologic models or enhancements of existing models, particularly to include flow projections, is needed to improve the reliability and usability of model output.

The effort to measure the topography in the southern Everglades provides data that has increased the accuracy of existing models and will be used to develop new higher resolution models. Further topographic data collection in the areas of Biscayne Bay, Big Cypress National Preserve, and the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge is of particular interest to DOI.

Efforts to collect "real-time" field data are required to enhance model capabilities, reliability, and accuracy. The upgrade of existing and addition of new hydrologic monitoring stations at presently unmonitored locations will increase available flow, stage, salinity, and water quality data, including data on contaminants. Research to support the models should also focus on the collection of data that will facilitate the simulation of processes such as evapotranspiration, biochemical cycling in the soil and water column, and nutrient transport.

The development of higher resolution models will not supplant the ability to also consider the ecosystem in its broadest terms. Instead, a multi-scale capability will be retained.

Landscape-scale land use compatibility assessment tools. Land use and preservation/restoration decisions have significant, but highly uncertain impacts on water quality and quantity, flow patterns, and ecosystem health in the Greater Everglades Ecosystem. However, these environmental and ecological factors have economic values that are currently being ignored (or only partially considered) in these decisions.

Regional scale efforts are needed to assess the societal impacts of land management decisions that are based on natural science data and model outputs, to develop ecological - economic indicators that measure the impact of restoration efforts on natural and built environments, to estimate the economic values that result from projects that are designed to preserve critical ecological resources, and to assess land allocations and their economic values that includes the consideration of uncertainty.

A groundwater model is needed that addresses historical, current and projected groundwater flows between Everglades and Biscayne and Florida Bays A much better understanding is needed of the hydrogeologic framework affecting groundwater flows between Everglades and Biscayne National Parks

Model and monitoring of the surficial aquifer. Quantitative assessment and monitoring of seepage into the surficial aquifer (such as a 3-dimensional water tracing study) and surficial geology is needed. Model and monitoring of the wet and dry season hydrologic gradients in the surficial aquifer over time is also needed.

Modeling of vegetative production and changes in vegetative communities. Habitat succession models are required for regional assessments of how the landscape might change in response to implementation of the CERP. Models of vegetative succession simulate how plant communities change in response to hydrology, nutrients, and other factors such as fire. The transport of nutrients and organic matter in water and the interactions of plants with water levels, soils, nutrients, and lower trophic level micro fauna all affect how vegetation changes over time. Computer models of habitat succession can simulate detailed changes in vegetation over various temporal and spatial scales, but are most accurate when applied to only well known community types. Look-up tables and diagrams of habitat continuums, though not dynamic, can provide reliable predictions of succession changes in vegetation when computer models are not available or not verified.

The following vegetative types are particularly important to model:

tree islands (responses to water flow and depths)

mangrove vegetation (responses of community to nutrients, water flow, and salinity)

sawgrass prairie (responses to water depths and phosphorus)

vegetative communities important for endangered species, such as muhly grass (breeding habitat of Cape Sable sparrow)

invasive or exotic species that are recognized to be in competition with the communities listed above

Develop tools to describe the hydrology in the predrainage ecosystem. Develop tools to describe the hydrology in the predrainage ecosystem. Additional tools need to be developed to describe the predrainage ecosystem so that improved hydrologic targets for restoration can be established. The Natural System Model has been used to date, but its predictions have not been consistent with other research and empirical data in some parts of the ecosystem. Additional tools could provide improvements to understanding the predrainage ecosystem.

Models that describe and link water supply and hydrodynamics with habitat impacts. In particular, modeling of marine and estuarine production and changes in marine Communities are needed. There are no habitat succession models for assessing the effects on marine and estuarine communities of changes in water management and distribution resulting from the CERP and related water management programs. Such modeling is equally important in marine and estuarine ecosystems. Community structures and interactions are essentially unknown. Many of the CERP projects under development or construction will have a dramatic affect on marine and estuarine habitats, especially those along the mainland and embayment shorelines, which serve as important nursery areas for many species of fish and invertebrates targeted by recreational and commercial fisheries. Models that describe and link water management and hydrodynamics with habitat impacts (e.g., related to changes in the type or presence of submerged aquatic vegetation), community structure, and species interactions need to be developed to enable prediction of ecological consequences of various water management scenarios. Refinement of habitat assessment and restoration evaluation methodology are needed, including review of the potential for inclusion of statistical analysis and spatial quantification of ecological performance measures

Everglades Landscape Model (ELM) development. The ELM is intended to simulate how hydrology, soil water nutrient contents, periphyton biomass, vegetation biomass, and community type respond to changes in water quantity and quality. New data from the southern Everglades area, primarily from DOI lands, needs to be incorporated into the model to improve its accuracy in predicting landscape responses to different water management scenarios.

Regional Simulation Model (RSM) ecological module development. Currently the RSM does not include an ecological module. However, such a module is needed to link the simulation of ecologically significant processes to emerging hydrologic models. This will provide a method for comprehensive ecological evaluations of project alternatives. A vegetation succession module and a landscape utilization module are needed to provide a more complete regional understanding of how vegetation, fish, and wildlife will likely respond to restoration efforts.

Spatially explicit habitat suitability index models. HSI models assess the suitability of particular areas throughout the south Florida landscape (or subregion of the landscape) and coastal estuaries for particular species, ecologically similar functional groups of species, or entire communities of plants, terrestrials animals, fish, and aquatic macro and micro invertebrates. These models synthesize information about environmental conditions, including vegetative composition and water levels, within a given geographic area and how those conditions change over the course of a year or period of years. The models use information about the preference, avoidance, or other responses of particular species or functional groups to particular vegetation types and patterns of water depth during the year. The resolution of the existing models is considered to limit the accuracy of the models; hence, enhancement of the models using finer scale topography and the collection of additional field data are necessary.

Species and functional groups for which habitat suitability models are likely applicable include the following:

Cape Sable seaside sparrow	Snapper spp. (e.g., gray snapper)
long-legged and short-legged wading bird groups	Spotted sea trout
white-tailed deer	Red drum
American alligator	Macro and micro crustaceans
American crocodile	Sponges
Everglades and slough crayfish	Plankton
apple snail
Florida panther
Everglade snail kite

The hydrologic and ecological conditions that promote the spread of exotic species and the adaptation of freshwater organism to marine conditions should also be modeled to examine how CERP projects may influence their habitat. These models will provide valuable information for risk assessments of whether the design and management of restorations projects would affect the habitat suitability of invasive exotics.

Spatially explicit demographic models. Various approaches to demographic modeling are appropriate for different purposes. Stage-structured models describe population dynamics as composed of a number of life stages, each stage having different size, physiology, and environmental requirements. Sufficient data exist to develop stage-structured models of the following south Florida species:

American alligator	Snapper spp.
freshwater fish functional group	Spotted sea trout
estuarine fish functional group	Red drum
crayfish species	Blue Crab
apple snails	Stone crab

Individual-based models describe populations by simulating each individual in the population as it goes through its life cycle. Detailed descriptions of reproduction, in particular, may be included. These models allow inclusion of a great deal of specific detail about the responses of individuals to environmental conditions. Sufficient data exist for development of individual-based models of the following species:

Cape Sable seaside sparrows

snail kites

white-tailed deer

Florida panthers

certain wading bird species

Higher resolution ecological models. In general, the ecological models have a higher resolution than the hydrologic models, but when these models are coupled, the detail of the final output is limited to the resolution of the hydrologic model. Hence, as the resolution of hydrologic models improves, both the programming and the interpretation of output from the ecological models need to be periodically refined.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Additional interagency effort is needed to quantify the uncertainty and sensitivity in the regional models used in the CERP, especially the hydrologic models, since outputs from these models are used as inputs into the various ecological and water quality models. Understanding the types of sensitivities that a model might have to various input data and how those sensitivities might differ at different locations across the modeled landscape are important to proper interpretation of the model results. Likewise, understanding how input data, computer program algorithms, formulas, and associated tools affect model predictions is key to characterizing the certainty of the results of computer simulations. Understanding and estimating model uncertainty will help refine monitoring programs and identify priority needs for more accurate data or additional information, or at least allow decision makers to consider the potential implications of a certain degree of scientific uncertainty.

Continuous calibration, testing, and peer review. Protocols for quality assurance and quality control, including model calibration and verification of existing and updated model codes and applications, are needed to maximize model accuracy. External peer reviews of model codes and applications will help ensure the models' proper uses in the analysis of proposed alternatives. Code and application level peer reviews are needed for all of the key regional hydrologic, water quality, and ecological models used in the CERP, including the MIKE series of models, the SFWMM (2 x 2 Model), the NSM, the ATLSS models, and the RSM and its utilities.

Improved accessibility of modeling data. Development of user interfaces that are capable of integrating numeric model output into different output graphics will allow decision makers to analyze results from multiple models simultaneously, expedite assessments of project-related ecological benefits, and improve the uniformity in how anticipated project benefits are assessed, quantified, and documented. Development of a tool that grants staff direct access to model input, output, and model code will provide each agency with the data necessary to run the models and view the output graphics for unique cases where further analyses of model outputs are required.

Incorporation of models into the monitoring and adaptive assessment program. Landscape level ecological models should play a role in post-implementation assessment and adaptive management. The available tools currently used to evaluate the performance of various restoration projects may not accurately predict the real responses in the upcoming years, for a variety of reasons. Field data collected from monitoring efforts will be used to test model predictions and support decisions that improve the potential for successful restoration following the application of adaptive management.

Interagency Modeling Center. The Interagency Modeling Center (IMC) was created to satisfy the modeling needs of the CERP. However, the IMC is currently staffed to a level that supports only the application of regional hydrologic models. In addition to making the IMC a truly interagency effort, funding of additional DOI positions and appropriate computer hardware within the IMC will provide a means for the integration of hydrologic, water quality, and ecological models; quantification of model accuracy (e.g., sensitivity and uncertainty analyses); development of data interpolation tools; and the application of integrated hydrologic, ecological, and water quality models.

Comprehensive Integrated Water Quality Feasibility Study

Background
The needed science components for the Comprehensive Integrated Water Quality Feasibility Study (CIWQFS) will focus on identifying degraded water bodies, identifying and quantifying types and sources of waterborne pollution, establishing load reduction targets for pollutants, and conducting an inventory and evaluation of the suite of structural and nonstructural technologies that have the potential to improve water quality. DOI has a strong interest in assisting the multiagency CIWQFS Project Delivery Team in identifying the linkages between water quality targets and ecosystem restoration.

What Is Needed
Phosphorus-reduction technologies. The highest priority science needed at this time is to continue research to develop environmentally benign technologies to reduce STA phosphorus discharges down to 10 ppb. These types of technologies, such as existing STA optimization and wetlands dominated by periphyton or submerged aquatic vegetation, are likely to have lower operation and maintenance costs and fewer adverse environmental impacts than chemical treatment technologies. STAs augmented with these technologies may be used across the Everglades, including the urban basins on the eastern Everglades and the C-111 basin, as the Everglades Construction Project and the CERP are implemented. Seven years of research have improved these technologies greatly and have led to improvements in existing STAs, but the STAs have not yet achieved discharges consistently at or below 10 ppb.

Numerous CERP projects are planned to introduce water to areas of the Everglades that have been too dry for decades but consequently not subjected to nutrient enrichment. Examples include the northern portion of the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, the western portion of WCA-2A, and the northeastern portion of WCA-3A. Because it takes many decades for Everglades wetlands to recover from water and sediment nutrient enrichment, it is crucial that best management practices and water treatment technologies be in place to guarantee that this rehydration is accomplished with clean water. In addition, research is needed in the southern Everglades (e.g., C-111 basin) to determine the ecosystem-scale effects of adding very low levels of phosphorus. A key analytical tool for this is the Dynamic Model for Stormwater Treatment Areas (DMSTA) and refinement of this tool is needed.

Even as water quality restoration projects are implemented and water column and sediment phosphorus concentrations decrease, it is not known how Everglades plants and animals will respond. It may be necessary to actively manage some areas. For example, monocultures of cattail may not disappear immediately in response to improved water quality. Research is needed to determine what other management activities, such as fire, herbicide, or manual removal, may be needed to accelerate recovery of impacted areas.

Research to identify relevant links between water quality and ecosystem structure and function. Additional study is needed to better understand what water quality will sustain desirable ecosystem characteristics and functions in the Everglades. A better understanding of contaminant linkages from terrestrial and freshwater systems to estuarine and marine systems (Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, mangroves, southwest Everglades estuaries, and the Ten Thousand Islands area) is required to avoid unintentional water quality impacts that could result from implementation of Everglades restoration activities.

Research to identify degraded ecosystems and quantify the types and sources of pollution. There is a need to fully understand the sources, cycling, and fate of critical chemical constituents. Although considerable effort has been put toward understanding sources, effects, and methods for controlling phosphorous, similar analyses are needed for other contaminants.

Water quality performance targets. Research is needed to link WQ characteristics, such as performance targets, to ecosystem structure and function. Additional research is needed to identify targets, which are indicative of restoration success, for estuarine system. Monitoring of ecology linked to water quality targets are needed to identify areas in need of adaptive management.

Better understanding of the water quality impact of ASR activities on the natural system. ASR is a critical water storage component of the CERP and is essential for restoring more natural hydrology to natural systems. However, the water quality impacts of the ASR technology are not completely understood. Critical issues that have not been addressed relate to the potential contamination of water while it is stored in a deep aquifer.

Studies to Support Fish and Wildlife Friendly Siting and Operation of Reservoirs, STAs, and ASR Structures

Background
The CERP projects call for approximately 158,000 acres of aboveground reservoirs and 33,000 acres of STAs, totaling 191,000 acres (300 square miles, or a little less than half the size of Lake Okeechobee). This total does not include the acreage of reservoirs and STAs in non-CERP projects, such as the 40,000 acres in the Everglades Construction Project. The CERP also calls for about 330 ASR wells, which often include surface storage reservoirs to provide additional water storage capability.

DOI managers need information to adequately address the potential for adverse effects on fish and wildlife associated with these engineered water bodies, in addition to their anticipated benefits. The potentials for adverse effects include a loss of upland and natural wetland habitats, the potential for introduction of invasive exotics, the potential for introduction of soil-borne contaminants (addressed separately, below), and the physical risks to fish and wildlife associated with large numbers of pumps and other structures.

What Is Needed
GIS habitat mapping to guide site selection for large reservoirs and STAs. Further refinement and expansion of the GIS-based habitat mapping tool developed for the Lake Okeechobee Watershed Project (see page 24) will allow its use for other CERP projects.

Studies of the effects of intake pumps and control structures. Studies are needed to identify better designs for intake pumps and control structures that will minimize impingement (trapping organisms against intake screens) and entrainment (passage of organisms through a pump) of aquatic organisms at intake sites.

Analyses of reservoirs and STAs as habitats for invasive exotic aquatic species. Research is needed to support engineering designs for reservoirs and STAs that avoid or mitigate the effects of aquatic invasive exotic species on wetlands, while allowing these structures to function as needed for ecosystem restoration.

Risks to Fish and Wildlife from Soil-Borne Contaminants

Background
As the CERP is implemented, thousands of acres of federal and state lands will be converted to water storage facilities, including STAs, ASR detention reservoirs, ASR wells, and aboveground and in-ground storage reservoirs. Many of these facilities will cover large expanses, sometimes thousands of acres, establishing local and regional aquatic ecosystems and providing foraging habitat for waterfowl and other aquatic wildlife. Ultimately, water from these facilities will be diverted downstream to hydrate natural system wetlands and preserve coastal estuaries. The CIWQFS addresses the need to establish water quality targets for the facilities themselves and for the downstream areas receiving these waters (principally targets for nutrients and bacteria, which are regulated by the state); however, that study does not address in detail the potential for contaminants that might, as indirect effects of the water storage and rehydration projects, affect fish and wildlife.

Threats Associated with Rehydration of Agricultural Lands
Much of the land to be acquired is currently managed for row crops, citrus, fruit orchard, sugarcane, or improved pasture. Conversion from farmland to wetlands will result in the release of residual pesticides, fertilizers, animal waste byproduct protocolsunctions be combined, and metals and metalloids into surface waters. Historical farm management practices, especially those associated with row crop farming, sometimes involved the application of organochlorine pesticides, many of which are no longer licensed for use in the United States, for insect control. Frequent applications of DDT, chlordane, and toxaphene were common in agricultural areas of South Florida over several decades, leaving significant residual concentrations of these toxic substances and their degradation byproducts in the topsoil.

Since detection of elevated levels of mercury in freshwater fish in 1989, it has become increasingly apparent that South Florida also has an extensive mercury contamination problem. Many agricultural lands also have some degree of contamination from metals and metalloids (e.g., copper, arsenic, and selenium). Water retention over contaminated soils presents a potential to release these contaminants into affected ecosystems through a combination of chemical desorption into the water and uptake through aquatic organisms into the food chain. At this time, it is not well known how water quality and nutrient cycles in STAs and reservoirs built on former agricultural lands will be affected by these residual soil-bound contaminants.

In South Florida, desorption from sediment to water and transport via food chain dynamics is probably the most important exposure pathway to consider regarding the design and operations of STAs and storage reservoirs. Fortunately, the fate and transport of most known organic and inorganic pollutants are well documented, including information about their mobility through air, water, soil, and sediment, and exposure pathways. Information regarding the many natural processes that transform and degrade soil- and waterborne contaminants (important in determining the bioavailability of contaminants such as mercury, selenium, organochlorine pesticides, copper, and lead) is also well documented.

Threats Associated with Aquifer Storage and in In-Ground Reservoirs
DOI is also concerned about the quality of water that will be discharged from the in-ground reservoirs and aquifer storage wells. The depth of the in-ground reservoirs and their method of construction ensure connection with deep groundwater strata, similar to the aquifer storage wells. These strata typically contain high concentrations of dissolved solids, whose potential effects on the ecosystem are unknown.

It is believed that geochemical reactions between stored water and the minerals associated with the aquifer host rock may produce increased concentrations of some metals and trace elements. Other changes to the physical and chemical properties of the water, such as temperature or dissolved oxygen, also represent areas of concern, as they may affect the structure or composition of aquatic communities.

What Is Needed
Site contamination assessments. Accurate site-contamination assessments are critical to assess the risks from contaminants. The most accurate assessments utilize a high sample density (e.g., one sample every square meter); however, budgetary constraints hinder site-contamination assessments for large agricultural tracts by limiting the number of samples that can be analyzed. A compromise must be reached in which reasonable certainty in assessment conclusions are attained given the funding available to perform such an assessment. Currently, sample density is one discreet sample per 10 to 20 acres for small tracts (< 500 acres), and one composite sample per 50 acres for large tracts (> 500 acres). This results in the sample number being sufficient to provide adequately narrow uncertainty bounds around the site average contaminant level for small tracts; however, high uncertainty levels remain for large tracts since only a portion of the tract is sampled.

Risk assessments. Risk management decisions are often based on what ecological component is at risk from a particular action, reflecting that certain components have greater management value than others. Determining the most at risk component will best be addressed by improving knowledge of contaminant partitioning among ecosystem components. Once contaminant partitioning is characterized, it will be possible to answer questions about which managed resources are at greatest risk, given potential contaminant exposures.

Accurate characterization of potential exposure scenarios for managed resources will help managers understand the risk from exposure to contaminants. Managers need to understand both bioaccumulative risks and risks associated with exposure to multiple contaminants.

Risks associated with bioaccumulation: Some currently banned pesticides and other contaminants that have been found on South Florida agricultural lands are known to accumulate in wildlife to concentrations that greatly exceed soil/sediment/water concentrations, resulting in greater risk to wildlife than indicated by contaminant concentrations. The degree to which contaminant accumulation occurs depends on the organism trophic level, soil/sediment parameters, and contaminant properties. Food chain models provide information about bioaccumulation of contaminants. They predict how sediment organisms are exposed to contaminants and, if not harmed by them, pass them up the food chain, leading to successively higher concentrations of contaminants in higher trophic level organisms.

The Florida Sediment Quality Assessment Guidelines (SQAGs) are used to screen potentially toxic contaminants and assess sediment quality in Florida inland waters based on the probability of effects on aquatic invertebrates. Current SQAGs reflect only direct toxicity to sediment dwelling organisms and no SQAG's exist for marine and estuarine sediment. Even when bioaccumulative contaminant concentrations in soil/sediment/water are well below SQAG values, indicating low risk to sediment dwelling organisms, significant bioaccumulation risk to higher trophic level organisms may still exist. Information gleaned from food chain models needs to be considered along with laboratory and biological data to assess the risks to fish and wildlife from exposure to particular contaminants.

The current food chain models used to predict contaminant accumulation for site assessments are not necessarily appropriate for all potential exposure scenarios. Additional research will provide the information necessary to calibrate existing models and to develop new ones where needed to ensure that the design of STA wetlands adequately protects the water quality in adjacent Everglades wetlands.

In addition to improving food chain models, a decision process needs to be developed that will determine if the risk of bioaccumulation needs to be assessed.

Risks associated with multiple contaminants: Fish and wildlife in South Florida are likely exposed to more than one contaminant at a time. The synergistic effects of multiple contaminants on an individual organism are unknown, and this has potentially significant ecological implications. Current regulatory processes and risk assessments usually address risk from individual contaminant exposure. Risk assessments will benefit greatly from toxicity tests designed to determine combined toxicity for contaminants commonly encountered on agricultural lands to be restored. This information will help managers assess the risks to wildlife simultaneously exposed to multiple contaminants.

Sediment quality assessment guidelines for mercury and selenium. Adequate SQAGs for mercury and selenium have not been developed for South Florida. Both mercury and selenium vary in their respective toxicity to fish and wildlife depending upon methylation and other organic transformations that occur in soil and sediment. Although considerable research has been performed on mercury methylation, the level of information necessary to establish meaningful screening values has not been reached. No SQAG criteria exist for selenium, which bioaccumulates and biomagnifies in the food chain and has the potential to adversely affect a large number of fish and wildlife in low concentrations in water, soil, or sediment.

Predicting bioavailability of mercury (methylation) following inundation of dry land based on soil and water chemistry. At the April 2003 Greater Everglades Ecosystem Restoration Conference, concerns were raised that sulfate introduction into recently flooded lands and the repeated wetting/drying cycle of those lands will promote methyl mercury production. More research will inform management of the risk that flooding mercury-contaminated lands will present to natural resources

Methylmercury concentrations and effects on a representative carnivorous wetland bird. The dynamics of mercury within the Everglades could change significantly as water quality and the location and timing of water flows are altered in the restoration process. Research is needed to assess the risk of mercury contamination for the federally endangered wood stork, other federally listed species, and three state listed species. Data on mercury effect thresholds are limited, making it difficult to assess current or future risks to wading birds. This research will determine mercury effect levels in wading birds so that risks to these species can be assessed with a higher level of certainty

Research into the potential effects of copper on periphyton. Many of the proposed STAs will be constructed over existing citrus groves that have been repeatedly treated with copper compounds used to minimize fungal infestations on the trees. Although copper is not known to bioaccumulate a great deal in the food chain, it is harmful to algae such as periphyton. Periphyton is an important Everglades ecosystem component associated with nutrient assimilation and marl production. Diminished periphyton production over an extended period of time could adversely affect Everglades habitats receiving STA effluents. Research is needed on potential effects of copper contaminated water from STAs on the Everglades ecosystem. Generally, copper binds well with soil particulates and appears to be found in the greatest concentrations within the top 6 to 8 inches of the soil. Copper desorption from soil and sediment into the water column is subject to several local water quality and sediment quality variables. Studies will determine the water quality and sediment quality parameters that influence copper desorption, and quantify the effects of copper on Everglades periphyton communities.

Monitoring of actual uptake of contaminants into the food chain. To determine whether residual soil-bound contaminants are being released into the Greater Everglades via STAs, on-site studies at newly constructed and operating STAs will be necessary. The primary focus of these studies will be to determine the rapidity of contaminant (organochlorines, mercury, selenium, copper, lead, etc.) uptake into the food chain by measuring each of these contaminants in the tissues of invertebrates, fish, and bird eggs. Field collections will be spaced within given time intervals to provide a bioaccumulation/temporal relationship. A secondary focus of these studies will be to measure contaminant degradation and assimilation into the environment, resulting in half-life data based on local conditions. The resulting data will then be used to better estimate the risk to fish and wildlife from exposure to these contaminants and to develop best management practices and/or interim management plans.

Research to determine direct and indirect (food web) effects of mosquito control chemicals on federally listed species. Concerns over mosquito born diseases such as West Nile Virus are increasing and will result in increased pressure to allow application of chemical control agents on DOI managed lands. The short and long-terms effects of modern mosquito control pesticides on trust resources are not well understood. Some agents, while harmless to vertebrate species from direct contact, may nevertheless impact these species through reducing the prey items upon which they depend. Others are directly toxic to wildlife and have recently been implicated in shorebird deaths in South Florida.

Landscape-Scale Monitoring and Assessment

Effective adaptive management—and ecosystem restoration—will require both increasing the existing knowledge through monitoring and assessment and ensuring that knowledge is available to decision makers. The CERP MAP provides an integrated mechanism to monitor system response, change designs, and improve the chances of success of the CERP.

What Is Needed
Interim goals and targets. The CERP Programmatic Regulations require the CERP partners to agree to a process by which the success of the plan may be evaluated. Interim goals are descriptions of the desired purposes of restoration activities. The goals have been written to define a means to track restoration performance, report on restoration progress, and periodically evaluate the accuracy of predictions of system responses to the effects of the plan. Interim targets provide quantitative indicators of restoration performance and success. Indicators for interim targets include hydrologic, water quality, and biological parameters or "end-points" that describe what is believed to reflect the characteristics of a restored system. Interim goals and interim targets apply to the landscape scale of the Greater Everglades.

In order to track interim goals and targets, projects focused on research, monitoring, and scientific analyses are necessary. As one of the CERP partners, DOI has an interest in participating in the support for activities related to evaluating the success of restoration.

Additional tool development and research for Interim Goal predictions and desired restoration conditions. Additional research is necessary to provide improved quantitative performance predictions for the CERP. RECOVER's list of recommended indicators for the Interim Goals reflects the best available science, but many indicators need additional work to develop or refine their quantitative predictions. The results of this research will be provided to the RECOVER group as it refines its recommendations for CERP Interim Goals. Additionally, research is also needed to assist RECOVER in better defining the desired level of performance for these indicators to achieve restoration conditions. These desired performance levels will be key as restoration partners seek to improve the restoration plan.

Research to assess the current and historic interrelationships between increased freshwater flows and sea-level rise. Additional research on the interrelationships between sea-level, salinity, overland freshwater flows, tidal regimes, water budgets, and climate on coastal communities is necessary. This information will support the development and validation of process-based models of hydrologic fluxes, hydrogeologic framework, soil dynamics, productivity, and spatial variability in the mangrove and olgohaline zones of EVER.

Long-term monitoring of coastal community resources to detect early ecological responses to changes in sea-level.

MAP implementation. In order to help ensure successful implementation of the MAP it is important for DOI to determine which aspects of the monitoring components and research topics complement and supplement monitoring efforts within other DOI initiatives and to fund those as appropriate. Logical projects for DOI to support are elements of the MAP directly linked to agency missions, including

the effects of sea level rise on coastal wetlands and tidal creek dynamics and estuarine productivity within these habitats

the role of aquatic refugia habitats for aquatic fauna

the sublethal effects of contaminants on wading birds

West Indian manatee abundance and distribution relative to changes in freshwater flows and seagrass distribution as a result of implementation of the CERP

the role of submarine groundwater discharges to Biscayne Bay

trophic interactions of higher vertebrates (wading birds, waterfowl, Everglade snail kite) in the Lake Okeechobee food webs and the relationship of the lake's resource base to aquatic habitat structure

Enhance hydrologic and meteorological monitoring networks. The establishment of new weather and monitoring stations on DOI lands in the South Florida landscape will increase the understanding of the system and the ability to predict restoration and recovery outcomes from CERP projects.

Develop accessible and shared databases. The organization and sharing of data within and among agencies is critical to developing and implementing the science needed for restoration. Managers and scientists working on CERP or other restoration and resource management projects require access to the meteorological, hydrologic, water quality and ecological information that results from research and monitoring programs. The goal of data management programs is to capture, organize, catalog (=create metadata) and make available quality natural resource data, and to facilitate the transformation of data for complex analysis, synthesis and modeling. Databases need to be managed, designed, implemented and available to users to ensure that the scientifically sound information obtained through research is available for management decision-making, research, education, and promoting public understanding of South Florida's natural resources.

The organization and sharing of data within and among agencies is critical to developing and implementing the science needed for restoration. Managers and scientists working on CERP or other restoration and resource management projects require access to the meteorological, hydrologic, water quality and ecological information that results from research and monitoring programs. The goal of data management programs is to capture, organize, catalog (=create metadata) and make available quality natural resource data, and to facilitate the transformation of data for complex analysis, synthesis and modeling. Databases need to be managed, designed, implemented and available to users to ensure that the scientifically sound information obtained through research is available for management decision-making, research, education, and promoting public understanding of South Florida's natural resources.