The integrated code was applied to the southern Everglades of Florida and northeastern Florida Bay to quantify flow and salinity patterns for the period 1996-2002 and to evaluate the effects of selected hydrologic processes. In addition to simulating creek flows, the model also simulates overtopping of the coastal embankment and submarine ground-water discharge as mechanisms for delivering freshwater from the coastal wetlands into Florida Bay. Although simulated estimates of embankment overtopping contain a high level of uncertainty, model results indicate that overtopping is infrequent, but can occur in response to tropical storms. Storm surges force brackish Florida Bay water over the embankment and into the coastal wetlands. After making landfall, a tropical storm can also produce enough rain to reverse embankment overflow from the coastal wetland into Florida Bay. The water budget for the coastal wetland part of the model domain indicates that average rates of downward leakage (17.42 cm yr^-1) and upward leakage (17.14 cm yr^-1) are nearly identical for the simulation period, but for any particular year, however, the wetland may experience a net loss or gain to or from the aquifer. Model results also indicate that submarine ground-water discharge may be occurring on the south side of the embankment in response to the higher surface-water levels in the coastal wetland.

Field data and model results indicate a strong seasonal pattern in coastal wetland salinities. Salinities at the coastal creeks reach 35 psu toward the end of the dry season, but quickly drop to less than 5 psu with the onset of the wet season. This seasonal flushing pattern is well represented by the model with MAEs in simulated salinity ranging between 4 and 7 psu for the five coastal creeks with continuous data for the 7-yr simulation period. Future modifications to the water-management system in southern Florida may alter the freshwater deliveries to the Taylor Slough area. Based on the performance of the model to match the seasonal flushing pattern, the model should be able to predict the effects of these altered water deliveries on coastal salinity patterns.

The effects of surface-water and ground-water interactions, density-dependent flow, and local wind stress were evaluated by performing simulations without these processes and comparing results with the base case simulation. In general, the surface-water model that neglects interactions with ground water compares worse with field data than the base case integrated model; however, without additional leakage measurements, the better match with the integrated model cannot be conclusively attributed to ground-water interactions. A constant-density simulation results in cumulative creek flows that are about 9 percent less than the base case, and only a slightly different pattern in leakage, suggesting that the upward leakage zone that coincides with the freshwater/saltwater interface in the Biscayne aquifer is caused by topographic variations rather than by density variations. Removing the local wind stress does not have a substantial effect on creek flows, but does affect coastal salinities. Without the local wind stress, Trout Creek salinities do not increase to the 30-35 psu values measured in the field during the dry season.

In general, comparisons between simulated and observed flow and salinity patterns in both the wetland and aquifer indicate that important system processes and behavior are represented by the model, and although the model is subject to limitations, it is well suited to predict the effects of Everglades restoration on the Taylor Slough coastal wetlands. The general approach described here would also be applicable to other coastal wetlands where restoration or contaminant transport issues are of concern. The integrated code is robust, accurate, and can represent hydrodynamic surface-water flow and variable-density ground-water flow for multi-year periods. Presently, the numerical tool is being used to evaluate the effects of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan on future hydrologic conditions (heads, flows, and salinities) in the coastal wetlands and adjacent Florida Bay estuary.