Home Introduction Climate Variability Impacts on Ecosys. Degradation & Restoration in Chesapeake Bay Baseline Variability: Chesapeake Bay Chesapeake Bay WQ & Climate Variability FL Everglades: Hydro. Changes & Degradation Everglades Climate Variability & Relevance >Role of Time in Restoration Planning Acknowledgements References Figures

Increasingly, ecologists and resource managers recognize that restoration targets based on monitoring data and modeling simulations alone may not be sustainable under the spectrum of climate variability inherent to the system. Uncertainties abound in restoration science, from the future human population and its utilization of the watershed, to the location and frequency of monitoring compliance with TMDLs, to our technological ability to implement engineering strategies (Sklar et al., 2005). Paleoecological analyses offer a means to minimize uncertainty in the timing, rate, and magnitude of ecosystem response to a variety of anthropogenic and climate forcings by greatly extending the period of record for environmental observations (Jackson et al., 2001). Specifically, by documenting the baseline levels of variability inherent to an ecosystem, one can maximize the likelihood that restoration targets are sustainable. The natural variability of a system reflects the impacts of climate processes operating on a variety (subannual to multidecadal and longer) time scales. Modulation of precipitation, which has a fundamental role in controlling water quality and quantity, on such time scales makes it critical to continually evaluate ecosystem response to land-management actions. Lastly, use of all available monitoring and paleoecological data to evaluate, calibrate, and modify ecosystem and climate models that play such a large role in restoration planning is essential to reduce the uncertainties and risks inherent to adaptive management strategies. The enhanced temporal perspective of the paleoecological record helps environmental managers face a common challenge - to adopt management and engineering practices specific to local and regional land use while at the same time factoring in longer-term and less predictable climatic and sea-level changes associated with climate variability and anticipated impacts of human-induced global warming.