Determining Target Salinity Values for Restoration of the Estuaries of the Greater Everglades

Project Investigator: G. Lynn Wingard Project Personnel: James Murray, Bethany Stackhouse, Frank Marshall, Tara L. Colley, Anna Wachnicka Project Start Date: 2006 End Date: 2015 Recent Funding: (FY12) USGS GE PES, (FY11) USGS GE PES, (FY10) USGS GE PES, (FY09) USGS GE PES, (FY08) USGS GE PES, (FY07) USGS GE PES Work Plans Project Summaries Data Metadata Publications Photos Project Location Map

The primary objective of this project will be to provide information to CERP managers that can be used to establish target salinity values and performance measures for the estuaries and coastal ecosystems. The information provided will consider the contribution of climate, sea level rise and anthropogenic alteration on salinity values in the estuaries and coastal systems of south Florida. This work will build upon previous work in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay, and information derived from the Synthesis of these data. There are four areas of focus for this project. 1) Refine our existing modern analog data set by completing analyses of modern samples collected between 1996 and 2004 and applying these improved analog data to core data compiled in the Synthesis Task. 2) Collect new cores (if necessary) within the southern estuaries to fill in information gaps identified by the land management agencies (Everglades National Park and Biscayne National Park), and by the Southern Estuaries Subteam of the Regional Evaluation Team of RECOVER. 3) Select a few sites in the transition zones to collect cores in a transect moving perpendicular to shore in order to analyze the rate of sea level rise in the region. 4) Work with our collaborators to plug all of the combined paleoecology data into linear regression models that can hindcast salinity for different parts of the system. Ultimately these efforts will lead to the ability to forecast the data and develop targets for the CERP 2050 Plan that take natural change into consideration.

Work Plans

• 2007
• 2008
• 2009
• 2010
• 2012

Project Summaries

• 2007

Data

• Ecosystem History of South Florida Estuaries Data (from the data exchange pages)

Metadata

• Determining Target Salinity Values for South Florida's Estuaries: The Combined Effects of Climate, Sea Level, and Water Management Practices (project metadata)
• 1995 - 2007 Ecosystem History of South Florida's Estuaries Database (data set metadata)
• 2008 - Present Ecosystem History of South Florida's Estuaries Database (data set metadata)

Publications

Abstracts

• A Comparison of the Pre-drainage Everglades Hydrology and Florida Bay Salinity Based on Paleoecology from Multiple Sediment Cores Coupled with Statistical Models (from the Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Conference, December 2008)
• Verification of a Molluscan Dataset for Paleosalinity Estimation Using Modern Analogues: A Tool for Restoration of South Florida's Estuaries (from the Florida Bay and Adjacent Marine Systems Science Conference, December 2008)

Fact Sheets

• Estuaries of the Greater Everglades Ecosystem: Laboratories of Long-term Change (Fact Sheet 2010-3047) (Available from the U.S. Geological Survey Publications website)

Journal Articles

• A Simulation of Historic Hydrology and Salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling Paleoecologic Assemblage Data with Regression Models (published in Estuaries and Coasts, and available from SpringerLink)
• Application of a Weighted-Averaging Method for Determining Paleosalinity: A Tool for Restoration of South Florida's Estuaries

Open File Reports

• Evidence of Environmental Change in Rankin Basin, Central Florida Bay, Everglades National Park (OFR 2010-1125)
• Florida Bay Salinity and Everglades Wetlands Hydrology circa 1900 CE: A Compilation of Paleoecology-Based Statistical Modeling Analyses (OFR 2012-1054, available from the U.S. Geological Survey website)
• U.S. Geological Survey Science Support Strategy for Biscayne National Park and Surrounding Areas in Southeastern Florida (OFR 2007-1288, available from the U.S. Geological Survey website)

Photos

• Ecosystem History of South Florida Estuaries Photo Gallery