The four areas of focus for the project are:
1. Refine existing modern analog dataset by completing analyses of modern samples collected between 1996 and 2004 and applying the data to core data compiled in the Synthesis Task 2. Collect new cores (if necessary) within the southern estuaries to fill in information gaps identified by the land management agencies (Everglades National Park (ENP), and Biscayne National Park (BNP) and the Southern Estuaries Subteam of the Regional Evaluation Team (RET) of Restoration Coordination and Verification (RECOVER) 3. Select a few sites in the transition zones to collect cores in a transect moving perpendicular to shore to analyze the rate of sea level rise in the region 4. Work with collaborators to input all of the combined paleoecology data into linear regression models that can hindcast salinity for different parts of the system
Previous project personnel include: C. Holmes, W. B. Schill, R. Ortiz, C. Budet, K. Waylen, J. Hudley,
Langevin, C. D.; Jones, S. A.; Reich, C. D.; Wingard, G. L.; Kuffner, I. B.; Cunningham, K. J.
Hudley, J. W.; Marshall, F. E.
Wingard, G. L.; Pitts, P.
Wingard, G. L.; Cronin, T. M.; Orem, W. H.; Willard, D. A.; Holmes, C. W.; Reich, C.; Shinn, E.; Marot, M,; Lerch, T.; Trappe, C.; Landacre, B.
Modern proxy data have been compiled and tested against known salinities and shown to be a reliable indicator of salinity with a correlation coefficient of 0.8 at a 95% confidence level. These results were presented to members of the Southern Esutaries Sub-Team of RECOVER and at the National Conference on Ecosystem Restoration in April 2007. Collaboration on the development of salinity targets with the Southern Estuaries sub-team has continued, and a set of preliminary salinity targets has been developed. The paleosalinity values provided by our project have been successfully used by modelers to hindcast stage height in the terrestrial Everglades
In FY 2007 the plan is to select a few sites in the transition zones to collect cores in an transect moving perpendicular to shore in order to analyze the rate of sea level rise in the region. Existing datasets on sea level change will be gathered and compiled.
In FY08, we will analyze all existing core data using the modern molluscan proxy data set developed in FY07. These results will be compared to other proxy data, and summary interpretations published. Additional modern collections will be made in the nearshore and infaunal communities of the estuaries to fine tune the proxy data sets. We will continue our collaboration with the Southern Estuaries Sub-Team and the modelers using our paleosalinity data in regression analyses
Collection of new cores was delayed in FY07 while we completed analyses of the SW coastal cores from the Ecosystem History of the Southwest Coast-Shark River Slough Outflow Area Project. We believe these cores will illustrate general sea level patterns in southern Florida that can then be tested in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay if necessary. We are continuing to compile existing data sets on sea level change and hope to initiate collaboration with Florida Gulf Coast University in FY08.
We will continue in FY10 to provide information on flow, stage and salinity for the pre-drainage Everglades to the Southern Coastal Systems subteam of RECOVER. We will utilize the models developed by Dr. Frank Marshall (contractor, Cetacean Logic Foundation) coupled with paleoecologic data from USGS cores. At least two additional cores from Florida Bay will be analyzed in FY10. (Individual reports will release the core data.) Our plan is to complete work on Florida Bay, and to develop a "consensus" pre-drainage hydrologic regime for Florida Bay. This information will be presented orally and/or in report form to the Southern Coastal Systems subteam of RECOVER. In addition, we will compile the information for a manuscript on the pre-drainage hydrology of Florida Bay for submission to a peer-reviewed journal. Work will expand in FY10 from Florida Bay to begin applying the coupled paleoecology - linear regression models to cores from Southwest Coastal area (Shark River Slough Transect). At least one core from this area will be incorporated into the linear regression models in FY10.
Additionally, improvements to our modern analog data set will continue. We will identify/refine the modern ecologic constraints for a few key species found in the cores. A faunal/floral association found in the southwest coastal area will be investigated as potential indicators for the critical freshwater/estuarine transition zone. This work will be conducted in conjunction with Impacts of Hydrologic and Climatic Change on Greater Everglades Marl Prairies, Marshes, and Sloughs (Willard, PI).
FY2011 efforts will be focused on synthesizing the paleosalinity data on all of south Florida's estuaries to develop a regional overview of the changes that have occurred in the Southern Coastal Systems. These data will include the faunal and floral analyses that have been conducted over the years, as well as the linear regression models developed by Frank Marshall. By including Frank Marshall's models, we are able to estimate the freshwater stage and flow in the wetlands required to produce the paleosalinities derived from the biotic analyses.
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
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