David Strong; David Donato; Eric Swain; Jeremy Decker; Jeremy Claggett; Leonard Pearlstine
1. salt water intrusion into coastal water well fields, 2. the optimal use of canals to impede the inland movement of saline groundwater, 3. urban flooding, 4. the risk to populated areas and natural habitat from catastrophic storm surge, 5. wetland inundation periods and depths, 6. habitat suitability, 7. magnitude and distribution of future population growth, and 8. the impact of forecasted population growth on water demand and protected areas.
The IMMAGE project will address the need to run the model with changing input parameters by developing a framework of online GIS-based interfaces to four selected models, thereby enhancing their usability and making them available to a broader user community.
Development and water management policies being debated today in South Florida will commit public and private capital to infrastructure and facilities with design lives that reach well into the period of time when the impacts of sea level rise are expected to be felt. In evaluating and preparing for possible outcomes, alternative climate and land use scenarios are needed to evaluate the impacts of sea level rise and severe storms on existing and future land portfolios and social infrastructure. Analysis of the scenarios need to incorporate both physical and socioeconomic constraints to assess the natural / human tradeoffs of land use so that planning decisions about mitigation and adaptation make sense in planning for future climate changes. It is also critical that these scenarios be based upon the best-available monitoring data and numerical flow models, rather than relying solely on static simulations of sea level rise using elevation data.
Swain, Eric D., Wolfert, Melinda A.
Dixon, Joann; Koehmstedt, John; Ishman, Scott; Lietz, A. C.; Marella, Richard; Telis, Pamela; Rodgers, Jeff; Memberg, Steven
Wolfert, Melinda A.; Bales, Jerad D.; Goodwin, Carl R.
Swain, E. D.; Wolfert, M. A.; Langevin, C. D.; James, D. E.; Telis, P. A.
accessed as of 11/23/2010
DeAngelis, Donald; Mazzotti, Frank; Barnes, Tomma; Duever, Michael; Starnes, Janet
Bernknopf, R.; Hearn, P; Hogan, D.; Strong, D.; Pearlstine, L.; Mathie, A. M.; Wein, A. M.; Gillen, K.; Wachter. S.
Bailey, K. C.; Matheny, A.
Chen, J.; Shaffer, W. A.
Dickson, B. G.; Keitt, T. H.; Shah, V. B.
The full article is available via journal subscription or single article purchase. The abstract may be viewed on the website below
Decker, J. D.
Lohmann, M.; Decker, J.
The paper was presented at the Role of Hydrology in Water Resources Management Symposium held in Capri, Italy, October 2008. The Symposium Proceedings may be purchased. The abstract may be viewed on the website below.
Langevin, C. D.; Jones, S. A.; Reich, C. S.; Wingard, G. L.; Kuffner, I. B.; Cunningham, K. J.
The Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator has been developed over a number of years to be a tool for representing the hydrologic system by accounting for all relevant factors. It began with a surface-water application to the coastal area along Florida Bay using the SWIFT2D two-dimensional flow and transport simulator (Swain and others, 2004; Swain, 2005). Groundwater flow was incorporated into this simulation by coupling SWIFT2D with the SEAWAT simulator of groundwater flow and transport (Langevin and others, 2005). This coupled scheme is called FTLOADDS. The model area was expanded to encompass the whole Everglades National Park (ENP) area and referred to as the Tides and Inflows in the Mangrove Everglades (TIME) model (Wang and others, 2007). This model has been used to represent hydrologic restoration scenarios for the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP).
The FTLOADDS simulator was additionally applied to the Ten Thousand Islands area (Swain and Decker, 2009) and to the Biscayne Bay coast (Wolfert-Lohmann and others, 2008, Swain and others, 2009). The Biscayne Bay model was then combined with the TIME model to produce the BIscayne SouthEastern Coastal Transport (BISECT) model. The BISECT model incorporates some of the most important natural and urban areas in south Florida and is very useful in examining the effects of hydrologic factors. Applications include future forecasts with varying levels of sealevel rise in conjunction with CERP restoration changes and hindcast simulation to represent historical and transient conditions.
Experiments on various sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios have been performed with the BISECTmodel, which uses the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density-Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator for flow and transport in a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/ground-water system. The existing conditions simulation runs for the seven-year period 1/1/1996 through 12/31/2002. BISECT is a combination of two model domains that were developed separately; the Tides and Inflows in the Mangrove Ecotone (TIME) domain west of L-31N canal (Wang et al, 2007) and the Biscayne domain from L-31N to offshore Biscayne Bay (Swain et al 2009). This combination allows the examination of the entire coastal region from Barron River in the northwest all the way to the C-9 canal outlet in the northeast.
Coastal models for juvenile spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus), blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), and, turtle grass (Thalassia testudinum) have been developed at the South Florida Natural Resources Center, Everglades National Park (SFNRC/ENP). The models are coupled to the BISECT hydrologic model to simulate changes.
The ability of species to migrate among core habitat areas is impacted by changes in south Florida habitat connectivity resulting from urban growth, sea level rise and restoration-stimulated habitat succession. USGS, in cooperation with the SFNRC/ENP (Labiosa and others 2009) is developing and testing metrics for ranking the potential for wildlife species dispersal under alternative changes to the natural landscape and urban growth. The Circuitscape model (McRae and others 2008) provides the mechanism for evaluation of species dispersal. Circuitscape algorithms adapt electronic circuit theory to predict patterns of movement, gene flow, and genetic differentiation among plant and animal populations in heterogeneous landscapes.
950 Krome Avenue
To provide better information to resource conservation, restoration, and planning decisions in the United States, the USGS-Eastern Geographic Science Center (EGSC) is developing an urban growth forecasting capability as one component of a future National Land Change Community Model (NLCCM). Using experience with the SLEUTH model (slope, land use, exclusion, urban extent, transportation, hillshade), the NLCCM is being designed by Peter Claggett and David Donato as a coupled land demand and allocation model with similarity to both the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-S) and FOREcasting SCEnarios of land use change (FORE-SCE) models. The NLCCM will use nationally available datasets and be capable of simulating both deterministic and stochastic forecasts of land change. All model components will be built as open source software and publicly available for coupling with other environmental models to address a broad range of resource management questions.
The urban growth forecasting capability will involve downscaling national or regional scenarios of employment and population growth to the county-level. To translate county-level growth forecasts into estimates of land demand, multi-date land cover datasets will be analyzed to derive statistics on urban growth (number and extent of transitions, urban growth patch size distributions and spatial characteristics). Local zoning and public/ protected lands data will be used to characterize the eligibility of land for urban development. Nationally available hydrography, soils, slope, wetlands, and land cover data will be analyzed with the land change trend information to characterize the suitability of lands for urban development. Estimates of urban land demand will be allocated using an iterative stochastic routine that predict new urban growth on lands that are both eligible and suitable for development. Potential drivers of change will be identified through statistical comparisons of socio-economic and demographic data with land change statistics. The drivers of change during the recent past will be documented as assumptions underlying all future "trend" forecasts. Future deviations from past trends will be enabled through alterations to land demand, land change patch characteristics, and land eligibility and suitability.
Urban growth forecasts will be generated for the study area with an output resolution of 250-500 meters.
SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) is a numerical model run by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to estimate storm surge heights and winds resulting from historical, hypothetical, or predicted hurricanes. SLOSH uses the hydrodynamic flow equations and requires input of bathymetry, coastal topography, surface characteristics, and tidal levels (Jelesnianski and others, 1992). The coastline is represented as a physical boundary. Sub-grid scale water features (cuts, chokes, sills and channels), and vertical obstructions (levees, roads, spoil banks, etc.) are parameterized. The SLOSH model does not include rainfall amounts, river flow, or wind-driven waves. These are combined with the model results in the final analysis.
The SLOSH model will be run using current sea levels for NOAA’s Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay modeling basins.
The IMMAGE project will address the need to run the model with changing input parameters by developing a framework of online GIS-based interfaces to four selected models, thereby enhancing their usability and making them available to a broader user community. The approach is relatively simple: by running models multiple times in advance using the maximum likely range of input parameters, all the necessary model output can be then stored in a server database (Fig. 1). Web applications can then be developed to allow users to select the desired input parameters, retrieve the necessary model output from the database, and display the output in a map viewer with other relevant data - all online. Without the need to run the models online, this process is relatively fast, allowing the user to run multiple scenarios in a short period of time, then generate paper or softcopy tables and/or graphics of the results.
Through web services, the interface to each model will also be capable of both serving model output to other web-based models and applications, as well as consuming web services to acquire additional data not available in the framework database.
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
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