Richard Bernknopf; Paul Hearn
The EPM has three major components: (1) an ecological value model based on ecological criteria relevant to National Park Service and US Fish & Wildlife Service resource management and species protection mandates; (2) a real estate market-based land value model sensitive to relevant land use/cover attributes indicative of conservation and development decisions; and (3) a set of socioeconomic indicators sensitive to land use/cover changes relevant to regional environmental and ecological planning. The current version is implemented for Miami-Dade County, with the protection of ecological values in the lands between the Everglades and Biscayne National Parks as the focus. The first two components have been implemented in the GIS web-enabled prototype interface and the third component is being developed in draft form in FY08 in consultation with the Florida Atlantic University Dept of Urban and Regional Planning.
Bernknopf, R.; Hearn, P; Hogan, D.; Strong, D.; Pearlstine, L.; Mathie, A. M.; Wein, A. M.; Gillen, K.; Wachter. S.
This component captures the important relationships between conservation/ development actions and the ecological/environmental and socioeconomic endpoints of interest to decision-makers and stakeholders. This framework will be developed in terms of an ecological value model, a market (hedonic) land price model, and a system of socioeconomic indicators within an interactive web-based GIS environment.
a. Collaborative development of an Ecosystem Portfolio Model This sub-task will develop the conceptual framework and working model for use in ecological conservation and preservation decisions and other land use decisions, in collaboration with Everglades and Biscayne National Parks, the Miami-Dade County Department of Planning and Zoning, and various land use decision stakeholders. Based on work to date, the current version of the EPM has three primary objectives: (1) screen future land use/cover patterns in terms of ecological values that are important to supporting Department of the Interior mandates in Southeast Florida (Task 2); (2) screen future impacts on land price (and hence development pressure) in Southeast Florida for possible future land use/cover patterns (Task 4); and (3) screen social and economic impacts for possible future land use/cover patterns of communities in Southeast Florida using appropriate indicators (Task 3). This task seeks to design a conceptual decision framework that integrates these three capabilities within a GIS-based web interface. This task builds on user and stakeholder meetings held in FY06 and FY07 and will continue with user and stakeholder meetings to be held this fiscal year in Miami-Dade County.
b. Integration of EPM model components into a coherent decision support web tool This sub-task involves using decision science principles, good web design practices, and user/stakeholder feedback to refine and improve the components and over-all design of the web interface. The model inputs and outputs should be understandable, the relationships between components should be clear, the tool should be useful as well as user-friendly, and the uses and limitations of the tool and components should be clear to targeted users.
c. Development of multi-attribute utility models for each criterion of the ecological value model This sub-task involves using multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) to define a set of utility models over the ecological value model criteria. The utility models will be assessed from Park Service users and assumptions about utility model structure and parameterizations will be tested (using accepted techniques). Aggregated utilities come from weighting the individual utility functions and aggregating them with an appropriate over-all utility function. For the current web prototype, ecological value criterion weights are user inputs. The web interface will be modified (under Task 5) so that sensitivity analysis can be performed on utility function parameters for individual criteria (in addition weights).
a. Continue consultations with Everglades and Biscayne National Parks and US Fish & Wildlife Service to refine the ecological value model. The purpose of consultations is to get feedback on our implementation of models for the ecological criteria elicited from the Park Service and Fish & Wildlife Service.
b. Implement and refine models for each criterion of the “ecological value model” – The biodiversity and habitat criteria are being implemented using refined versions of the Florida GAP, the US FWS Multi-Species Recovery Plan, and the Florida Natural Areas Inventory models. All land use/cover classifications are being unified (crosswalked) using the Florida Land Use and Cover Classification System (FLUCCS). The landscape pattern and fragmentation criterion is being implemented using the FRAGSTATS landscape metrics package (<http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/fragstats.html>). Suitable models for the water quality buffer and restoration potential models will be identified and implemented this year. All of the models are being implemented in a GIS environment under Task 5, allowing users to modify the land use/cover inputs to evaluate against the ecological value model. This work was begun in FY07 and draft final models will be completed in FY08.
c. Develop a scoring system based on multi-attribute utility theory (designed under Task 1) to aggregate the scores for the individual ecological criteria to yield an aggregate “ecological value” on a parcel (cell) basis in the GIS-web tool. This scoring system and the under-lying utility models will be developed collaboratively with the Park Service.
The system of indicators will be developed this fiscal year in consultation with researchers at Florida Atlantic University and in collaboration with representative regional land use stakeholders. The system of indicators will be partially implemented this year using available data and models and will be implemented in the GIS web tool next fiscal year.
An economic value model for land parcels is composed of several factors that comprise total economic value of a particular parcel. One of the factors that included in a ranking of the economic value of a parcel is the estimated market value of that land. Various economic analyses regarding southeast Florida were reviewed in FY07 and it was noted that the economic metrics in use, including non-market economic arguments (community character, infrastructure costs, and flood protection), could be problematic for incorporation into the total economic value component of the EPM. Further evaluation and testing of the non-market impacts is underway and will continue in FY08. The hedonic land price model developed in FY07 will be refined based on these considerations in FY08. This land price model will be used to inform a development pressure model that uses future land use/cover patterns to predict future development pressures. In FY08, we will develop a draft development pressure model for future implementation into the GIS-web tool. This model will enable users to explore different land use change policies and their probable effects on future development pressures.
The principal components include: a. Continued collection, organization, and refinement of relevant GIS data: 1. Land use and land cover 2. Future land use, proposed land bridge development information 3. Parcel data and property values 4. Chemical, physical, and biologic data: nutrients, sediments, hydrology, and habitats 5. Roads/streets 6. Municipal, park, development, protected area boundaries 7. Orthoimagery 8. Population – current and future projections 9. Elevation 10. Estimates of land bridge mitigation costs 11. Other data as needed
b. Refinement of EPM GIS software including user interface(s) for calculating results, observing model inputs and results, and exploring conservation/development spatially-distributed compatibilities and externalities for possible future scenarios. Methods include approaches from economics and decision science. A prototype of the web interface is currently available within the USGS LAN (<http://memphisserv.er.usgs.gov/sflorida/sflorida.html>).
c. Setup and maintenance of central repository of GIS data and software for remote access by project contributors and users.
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
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