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modeling alligator production probabilities in the everglades >
api model, model constraints & literature cited
Modeling Alligator Production Probabilities in the Everglades
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API MODEL
ATLSS American Alligator Production Index
- Coarse indicator of yearly production potential.
- Based on local habitat and hydrologic conditions.
- Production potential is directly influenced by unique environmental conditions.
- Addresses only the effects of relative local habitat quality and hydrological dynamics.
- Should not be interpreted as providing estimates of population dynamics or viability.
- Not likely to encompass long-term changes in habitat quality. Stabilized hydrologic regimes may result in slow degradation or improvement of habitat not included in this model.
- Little verification of the model's performance was possible except in Everglades National Park, WCA2, and WCA3.
- Density of essential landscape features (e.g. tree islands) within WCA1 (ARM Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge) are "best guess" approximations since data are currently lacking.
MODEL CONSTRAINTS
Spatial Constraints
- Spatial resolution - 500 meters by 500 meters
- Historical observations suggest that this roughly corresponds to the home-range of nesting female alligators.
- All data (water depth, vegetation type, ground elevation, breeding indices) represent values for a 500x500 meter area.
Temporal Constraints
- Temporal resolution
- One day for all water data (height and depth).
- Static for the vegetation habitat types.
- The model produces a single yearly value for each spatial cell that incorporates the daily water data affecting nesting and offspring production during that year.
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Literature Cited
Fleming, D. M. 1991. Wildlife Ecology Studies, Annual Report, South Florida Research Center, Everglades National Park, Homestead Fl, V-10-1-52.
Kushlan, J. A. and T. Jacobsen. 1990. Environmental Variability and Reproductive Success of Everglades Alligators. J Herpetol. 4(2):176- 184.
Mazzotti, F. J. and L. Brandt, 1994. Ecology of the American Alligator in a Seasonally Fluctuating Environment. Pgs:485-505 in S. M. Davis and J. Ogden (eds.) Everglades: The Ecosystem and Its Restoration. St. Lucie Press, Delray Beach, Fl.
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Related information:
SOFIA Project: Across Trophic Level System Simulation (ATLSS) - Alligators submodel
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